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Finally, click on "Personal Programme" to modify, view, print, save or export your Personal Programme. Please, click Abstract Number to find the corresponding abstract as PDF file; if necessary, download Adobe Acrobat Reader 4.0 first to open the file. Any abstract may be freely reproduced for non-commercial, scientific purposes; however, the moral right of the author(s) to be identified as the author(s) of such abstracts is asserted. Convener: Stainforth, D. Co-Convener: Forest, C., Annan, J., Knutti, R. Co-Sponsorship: Author in Attendance: Tuesday, 4 April 2006 10:30 - 12:00 Display Time: Tuesday, 4 April 2006 08:00 - Tuesday, 4 April 2006 19:30 Poster Area: Halls X/Y Chairperson: STAINFORTH, D. Select complete timeblock XY0234 EGU06-A-05271;  CL014-1TU2P-0234 Furrer, R.; Knutti, R. Probabilistic projections of climate change fields from a multivariate Bayesian analysis of climate model data XY0235 EGU06-A-10911;  CL014-1TU2P-0235 Curry, C.; Sanso, B. ; Forest, C. Incorporating additional uncertainty in rigorous MCMC estimation of PDFs of Climate System Properties XY0236 EGU06-A-09667;  CL014-1TU2P-0236 Forest, C.; Stone, P. ; Sokolov, A. Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings and implications for 21st century climate change predictions. XY0237 EGU06-A-09637;  CL014-1TU2P-0237 Kriegler, E Sensitivity of the likelihood function for climate system parameters to assumptions about the historical radiative forcing XY0238 EGU06-A-09670;  CL014-1TU2P-0238 Tebaldi, C.; Yates, D.; Mearns, L.O. Regional probabilities of climate change and water resource management XY0239 EGU06-A-10127;  CL014-1TU2P-0239 Stainforth, D; Allen, M; Piani, C; Christensen, C; Aina, T Probabilistic Predictions of Northern European Seaonal Climate Using Grand Ensemble Techniques XY0240 EGU06-A-10128;  CL014-1TU2P-0240 Stainforth, D; Allen, M; Piani, C; Christensen, C; Aina, T Uncertainty in Regional, Seaonal Precipitation Within A Grand Ensemble XY0241 EGU06-A-10130;  CL014-1TU2P-0241 Piani, C; Stainforth, D; Frame, D; Allan, M Constrains on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. XY0242 EGU06-A-10131;  CL014-1TU2P-0242 Piani, C; Frame, D; Stainforth, D ; Allen, M An novel statistical approach to constrained forecasting. XY0243 EGU06-A-09555;  CL014-1TU2P-0243 van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Coelho, C.A.S Probabilistic seasonal forecast verification with the Climate Explorer XY0244 EGU06-A-08270;  CL014-1TU2P-0244 Hegerl, G; Crowley, T; Hyde, W; Frame, D Constraints on climate sensitivity from temperature reconstructions of the last millennium XY0245 EGU06-A-07270;  CL014-1TU2P-0245 Schneider von Deimling, T.; Held, H.; Ganopolski, A. ; Rahmstorf, S. Climate sensitivity estimated from simulations of glacial climate XY0246 EGU06-A-05482;  CL014-1TU2P-0246 Annan, JD; Hargreaves, JC; Ohgaito, R; Abe-Ouchi, A; Emori, S Efficiently constraining climate sensitivity with ensembles of paleoclimate simulations (cancelled) XY0247 EGU06-A-05480;  CL014-1TU2P-0247 Annan, JD; Hargreaves, JC Combining multiple constraints on climate sensitivity XY0248 EGU06-A-06626;  CL014-1TU2P-0248 Faull, N. Ensemble climate prediction with coupled climate models XY0249 EGU06-A-05767;  CL014-1TU2P-0249 Tomassini, L.; Künsch, H.-R.; Buser, Ch.; Borsuk, M.; Reichert, P. A smoothing algorithm for estimating time dependent parameters: application to a simple climate model XY0250 EGU06-A-05705;  CL014-1TU2P-0250 Tomassini, L.; Borsuk, M.; Knutti, R.; Stocker, Th.; Reichert, P. Robustness in quantification of uncertainty in climate system properties XY0251 EGU06-A-05237;  CL014-1TU2P-0251 Sanderson, B; Knutti, R; Allen, M; Stainforth, D; Frame, D; Piani, C; Faull, N; Knight, S; Aina, T; Christensen, C Predicting feedbacks in a climate model ensemble XY0252 EGU06-A-03372;  CL014-1TU2P-0252 Jung, T.; Palmer, T.N.; Berner, J.; Doblas-Reyes, F.; Weisheimer, A. Seasonal-to-decadal climate probabilistic forecasts in the ENSEMBLES project XY0253 EGU06-A-02977;  CL014-1TU2P-0253 Wang, X.; Burgers, G.; Selten, F. Global warming signal-to-noise pattern in the Challenge ensemble XY0254 EGU06-A-01072;  CL014-1TU2P-0254 Frame, D.; Stone, D.; Stott, P.; Allen, M. 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