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  Information - NP2.04 Dynamical systems theory and ULFV in the atmosphere (co-listed in AS, CL & OS)

Event Information
A main aim of this session is to use the concept of atmospheric large-scale patterns and circulation regimes for the understanding climate variability in the future and the past.
In the framework of this concept, ULFV can arise due to irregular transitions between distinct atmospheric regimes and is manifested, primarily, in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of the preferred circulation regimes.
An important question is to understand, what part of ULFV is due to the large-scale nonlinear dynamics of the atmosphere and what parts is due to feedbacks from unresolved scales and processes in the coupled system.
Analogy studies with simple nonlinear atmospheric models and analyses of coupled model runs with increased greenhouse gases suggest, that response patterns of external forcing can in principle project onto natural variability modes, but the probability density of the preferred circulation regimes alters.
Observational, paleoclimatic and modelling studies are equally encouraged, with modelling studies expected to span the range of model hierarchy from idealised models to coupled AOGCMs.

Topics in this session are:
* Atmospheric circulation pattern recognition and detection
* ULFV in observations, idealised models, AGCMs and AOGCMs
* Causes of multidecadal changes in circulation patterns in idealised models, AGCMs and AOGCMs
* Changes of ULFV in an altered climate under global warming
* Reconstruction of past regime behaviour from paleo-climatic data and models
* Use of stochastic models for study of ULFV

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers


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