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  Information - HS23/NP5.04 Hydrological ensemble forecasting (co-listed in NH)

Event Information
In recent years, extensive work has been accomplished by the meteorological community to produce not only quantitative precipitation forecasts but also a measure of its uncertainty through the use of meteorological ensembles. The possibility of providing ensembles in the field of hydrology has also emerged and an international experiment, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) has been recently established. Within HEPEX, a number of open questions have been pointed out and the scope of this session is to give the floor to possible answers. In particular scientists and researchers in the various fields are invited to discuss: 1) The requirements for meteorological ensemble forecasts to support hydrological ensemble prediction and the scientific issues or questions that need to be addressed to meet these requirements. 2) How to measure (validate) performance of hydrological ensemble forecasts at different time and space scales. 3) The sources of uncertainty in hydrological models. 4) The implications of hydrological models being imperfect representations of real hydrological systems. 5) How can hydrological uncertainty be accounted for? 6) The requirements for hydrological ensemble forecasts to support water management, emergency services and other users.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers


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