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Information - NH2.02 Towards reduced uncertainty in flood risk analysis (co-listed in HS)
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Event Information |
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In a broad understanding flood risk is defined as the probability of adverse effects due to floods. Therefore, flood risk analysis encompasses the identification of relevant flood scenarios (What can go wrong?), the estimation of scenario probabilities (How likely is it that it will happen?), and the quantification of flood damage (If it does happen, what are the consequences?). The methods currently in use have severe shortcomings, and flood risk estimates may be very uncertain. This is valid for (1) the definition of adequate failure scenarios, including extraordinary situations not observed before, and situations for which flood defence systems have not been designed, (2) the assignment of probabilities to flood scenarios or failure mechanisms, and (3) the estimation of adverse consequences. Contributions in all three areas of flood risk analysis are invited that quantify the uncertainty of risk statements or present approaches that have the potential to reduce uncertainty. We invite studies that show how the uncertainties of any of 1, 2, or 3 above influence the overall uncertainty, and how this influence varies, for example, with increasing return periods. Further, we are interested in contributions that show what kind of information is particularly helpful for reducing uncertainty, as well as measures for flood mitigation and the cost effectivity of these measures. Since flood risk analyses have to include statements on extreme events, observation data are scarce. Therefore, we particularly invite contributions that address the issue of validation of flood risk analyses.
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Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers |
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 Back to Session Programme
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