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  List of Accepted Contributions - CL014 Probabilistic Forecasts of Climate and the Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Please, click Abstract Number to find the corresponding abstract as PDF file; if necessary, download Adobe Acrobat Reader 4.0 first to open the file. Any abstract may be freely reproduced for non-commercial, scientific purposes; however, the moral right of the author(s) to be identified as the author(s) of such abstracts is asserted.

Frame, D.; Stone, D.; Stott, P.; Allen, M.
Alternatives to Climate Sensitivity

Wang, X.; Burgers, G.; Selten, F.
Global warming signal-to-noise pattern in the Challenge ensemble

Jung, T.; Palmer, T.N.; Berner, J.; Doblas-Reyes, F.; Weisheimer, A.
Seasonal-to-decadal climate probabilistic forecasts in the ENSEMBLES project

Knutti, R.; Meehl, G.A.; Allen, M.R.; Stainforth, D.A.
Constraints on Climate Sensitivity from the Observed Seasonal Cycle

Sanderson, B; Knutti, R; Allen, M; Stainforth, D; Frame, D; Piani, C; Faull, N; Knight, S; Aina, T; Christensen, C
Predicting feedbacks in a climate model ensemble

Furrer, R.; Knutti, R.
Probabilistic projections of climate change fields from a multivariate Bayesian analysis of climate model data

Annan, JD; Hargreaves, JC
Combining multiple constraints on climate sensitivity

Annan, JD; Hargreaves, JC; Ohgaito, R; Abe-Ouchi, A; Emori, S
Efficiently constraining climate sensitivity with ensembles of paleoclimate simulations (withdrawn)

Tomassini, L.; Borsuk, M.; Knutti, R.; Stocker, Th.; Reichert, P.
Robustness in quantification of uncertainty in climate system properties

Collins, M; Bhaskaran, B; Booth, B; Harris, G; Murphy, J; Sexton, D; Webb, M; Brierley, C
Progress and Plans for Probabilistic Climate Prediction at the Hadley Centre

Tomassini, L.; Künsch, H.-R.; Buser, Ch.; Borsuk, M.; Reichert, P.
A smoothing algorithm for estimating time dependent parameters: application to a simple climate model

Faull, N.
Ensemble climate prediction with coupled climate models

Schneider von Deimling, T.; Held, H.; Ganopolski, A. ; Rahmstorf, S.
Climate sensitivity estimated from simulations of glacial climate

Hegerl, G; Crowley, T; Hyde, W; Frame, D
Constraints on climate sensitivity from temperature reconstructions of the last millennium

van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Coelho, C.A.S
Probabilistic seasonal forecast verification with the Climate Explorer

Kriegler, E; Hall, J
Imprecise probabilities of triggering tipping points in the earth system under various stabilisation policies

Kriegler, E
Sensitivity of the likelihood function for climate system parameters to assumptions about the historical radiative forcing

Forest, C.; Stone, P. ; Sokolov, A.
Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings and implications for 21st century climate change predictions.

Tebaldi, C.; Yates, D.; Mearns, L.O.
Regional probabilities of climate change and water resource management

Stainforth, D; Allen, M; Piani, C; Christensen, C; Aina, T
Probabilistic Predictions of Northern European Seaonal Climate Using Grand Ensemble Techniques

Stainforth, D; Allen, M; Piani, C; Christensen, C; Aina, T
Uncertainty in Regional, Seaonal Precipitation Within A Grand Ensemble

Piani, C; Stainforth, D; Frame, D; Allan, M
Constrains on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations.

Piani, C; Frame, D; Stainforth, D ; Allen, M
An novel statistical approach to constrained forecasting.

Allen, M; Frame, D
The Paradoxes of Climate Sensitivity Estimation

Rougier, J
The role of the climate model in probabilistic assessment of climate (withdrawn)

Rougier, J
Probabilistic assessment of climate (withdrawn)

Curry, C.; Sanso, B. ; Forest, C.
Incorporating additional uncertainty in rigorous MCMC estimation of PDFs of Climate System Properties

Vielle, M. ; Viguier, L.
Probabilistic GHG Emissions Forecasts under Energy Prices Uncertainty

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