EGU General Assembly 2007
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Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences
Nonlinear Processes:in Geosciences
NP2 Empirical Modeling
NP3 Scale, Scaling and Nonlinear Variability
NP4 Nonlineaar time-series analysis
NP5 Predictability
NP6 Turbulence and Nonlinear Waves
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  Oral Programme - NP5.01 Quantifying predictability

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Convener: Toth, Z.
Co-Convener: Vannitsem, S., Craig, G.
Co-Sponsorship: AGU Nonlinear Focus Group

Thursday, 19 April 2007

Lecture Room: Lecture Room 22

Chairperson: N.N.

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8:30 - 8:45
EGU2007-A-00545;  NP5.01-1TH1O-001
Young, R.; Read, P. L.
Intrinsic predictability measures of baroclinic chaos and quasi-periodic flow in the rotating annulus

8:45 - 9:00
EGU2007-A-01726;  NP5.01-1TH1O-002
Ruessink, B.G.
Predictability Experiments of Nearshore Bathymetry using a Process-based Numerical Model

9:00 - 9:15
EGU2007-A-04040;  NP5.01-1TH1O-003
Rabier, F; Gauthier, P; Langland, R
Objectives of the THORPEX working group on data assimilation and observing strategies for high impact weather forecast improvements

9:15 - 9:30
EGU2007-A-08852;  NP5.01-1TH1O-004
Martín, A.; Homar, V.; Fita, LL.; Gutiérrez, J.M.; Rodríguez, M.A.; Primo, C.
Geometric vs classical breding of vectors: Application to hazardous weather in the Western Mediterranean

9:30 - 9:45
EGU2007-A-07461;  NP5.01-1TH1O-005
Binter, R.; Broecker, J.; Penzer, J.; Smith, L.A.
Contrasting methods of ensemble interpretation

9:45 - 10:00
EGU2007-A-08760;  NP5.01-1TH1O-006
Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Weisheimer, A.; Berner, J.; Palmer, T. N.
Model error reduction in ensemble seasonal predictions with stochastic parametrizations


Chairperson: N.N.

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10:30 - 10:45
EGU2007-A-09148;  NP5.01-1TH2O-001
Ghil, M.; Chekroun, M.; Simonnet, E.
Robust estimates of climate change and the generalization of structural stability

10:45 - 11:00
EGU2007-A-06935;  NP5.01-1TH2O-002
Smith, L.A.; Du, H.; Binter, R.; Broecker, J.; Clarke, L.
A framework for investigating: "How large should an ensemble be?"

11:00 - 11:15
EGU2007-A-09013;  NP5.01-1TH2O-003
Broecker, J.; Smith, L. A.
On the relative value of a High Resolution Forecast in an Ensemble Prediction System


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