8th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms and extreme events in an era of climate change

Oral Programme Please, click Abstract Number to find the corresponding abstract as PDF file; if necessary, download Adobe Acrobat Reader 4.0 first to open the file. Any abstract may be freely reproduced for non-commercial, scientific purposes; however, the moral right of the author(s) to be identified as the author(s) of such abstracts is asserted. Convener: Alpert, P. Co-Convener: Saaroni, H., Heifetz, E., Shafir, H. Co-Sponsorship: Tuesday, 17 October 2006 Lecture Room: Massada Hall Chairperson: PRICE, C.   9:30 - 10:00 Welcome addresses   10:00 Flash Floods and Hydrological Aspects (1)   10:00 - 10:20 PLINIUS8-A-00071 Mugnai, A.; Casella, D.; Cattani, E.; Di Paola, F.; Dietrich, S.; Levizzani, V.; Sano, P.; Torricella, F. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF): Precipitation retrieval algorithms and precipitation products   10:20 - 10:40 PLINIUS8-A-00076 Dayan, U.; Morin, E. Flash flood producing rainstorms over the Dead Sea: A Review   10:40 - 11:00 PLINIUS8-A-00045 Morin, E.; Arbel, S.; Arazi, A.; Getker, M.; Harats, N.; Yacoby, Y.; Grodek, T.; Dayan, U. Studying the extremes: Hydrometeorological investigation of a flood-causing rainstorm over Israel   11:00 - 11:20 PLINIUS8-A-00041 Ghizzoni, T.; Giannoni, F.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R. Internal and external uncertainty in the calibration of hydrologic rainfall-runoff models 11:20 COFFEE BREAK Chairperson: SICCARDI, F.   11:50 Flash Floods and Hydrological Aspects (2)   11:50 - 12:10 PLINIUS8-A-00057 Price, C.; Yair, Y.; Mugnai, A. ; Lagouvardos, K.; Llasat, M.C.; Michaelides, S. FLASH: A new EU project related to Mediterranean flash floods   12:10 - 12:30 PLINIUS8-A-00072 Mugnai, A.; Casella, D.; Di Paola, F.; Dietrich, S.; Hoch, J.; Metha, A.; Smith, E.A.; Tripoli, G.J. Precipitation retrieval and analysis of severe storm events based on satellite observations, lightning data, and cloud model simulations: Application to the FLASH project   12:30 - 12:50 PLINIUS8-A-00077 Lensky, I. M.; Levy, Y. Using MSG and radar data to characterize severe convective storms over East Mediterranean sea and Israel   12:50 - 13:10 PLINIUS8-A-00063 Homar, V.; Genovés, A.; Campins, J.; Jansà, A. ; Ramis, C. Climatology of sensitivities of Mediterranean intense cyclones and heavy rain episodes   13:10 - 13:30 PLINIUS8-A-00038 Rebora, N.; Ferraris, L. ; von Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A. Uncertainty sources in hydrometeorological forecasting chains: a comparison between synoptic-scale and mesoscale variability 13:30 LUNCH BREAK Chairperson: MUGNAI, A.   15:00 Observing Systems and Remote Sensing (1)   15:00 - 15:20 PLINIUS8-A-00056 Price, C.; Federmesser, B. Lightning-rainfall relationships in Mediterranean winter thunderstorms based on TRMM measurements   15:20 - 15:40 PLINIUS8-A-00025 Funatsu, B.; Claud, C.; Chaboureau, J.-P. Characterization of Mediterranean precipitating systems using AMSU observations   15:40 - 16:00 PLINIUS8-A-00066 Chudnovsky, A.; Ben-Dor, E.; Saaroni, H. Application of VIS -NIR-SWIR reflectance spectroscopy (400-2500nm) to quantitative analyze of settled dust in the indoore environment during spring and summer seasons. A case study in Tel-Aviv 16:00 COFFEE BREAK Chairperson: DAYAN, U.   16:30 Observing Systems and Remote Sensing (2)   16:30 - 16:50 PLINIUS8-A-00074 Alpert, P.; Messer, H.; Zinevich, A. Environmental monitoring by cellular networks   16:50 - 17:10 PLINIUS8-A-00080 Delogu, F.; Gabellani, S.; Silvestro, F.; Rudari, R.; Sini, F.; Boni, G. Using satellite retrieved data for the calibration of an hydrological model for flash flood forecast   17:10 - 17:30 PLINIUS8-A-00047 Zotaj, A. Application of gis and remote sensing techniques for preventing the coastal erosion   17:30 - 18:00 Poster Session (Poster 1 - 10 will be presented)   18:00 - 20:30 BREAK   20:30 - 21:30 PLINIUS8-A-00097 Flexer, A. Med-Dead seas canal / tunnel challenge and its influence on the Jordan Rift Valley (invited lecture) 21:30 END OF THE DAY Wednesday, 18 October 2006 Lecture Room: Massada Hall Chairperson: KOTRONI, V.   9:00 Numerical Modeling and Dynamical Processes (1)   9:00 - 9:30 PLINIUS8-A-00098 Egger, J. Interaction of the atmosphere with mountains in the Mediterranean (Solicited lecture)   9:30 - 9:50 PLINIUS8-A-00054 Levin, Z.; Teller, A. On the effects of aerosols on cloud lifetime and precipitation in the Mediterranean region   9:50 - 10:10 PLINIUS8-A-00003 Krichak, S.; Alpert, P.; Dayan, M. A dynamic perspective of a link between of hurricane Olga (2001) and extreme synoptic event with torrential rains in Israel   10:10 - 10:30 PLINIUS8-A-00011 Fita, Ll.; Romero, R.; Ramis, C. Sensitivity study of two Mediterranean tropical-like storms   10:30 - 10:50 PLINIUS8-A-00018 Romero, R.; Emanuel, K. Space-time probability density of Mediterranean hurricane genesis in the present and future climate   10:50 - 11:10 PLINIUS8-A-00069 Metta, S.; Rebora, N.; Ferraris, L.; von Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A. Ensemble rainfall nowcasting by stochastic phase dynamics 11:10 COFFEE BREAK Chairperson: AGNON, Y.   11:40 Numerical Modeling and Dynamical Processes (2)   11:40 - 12:00 PLINIUS8-A-00100 Rostkier-Edelstein, D.; Vandenberghe, F.; Hahmann, A.; Liu, Y.; Swerdlin, S.; Warner, T.; Yates, D.; Yu, W. Cyclones and their effect on the hydrologic cycle in the Eastern Mediterranean for a double-CO2 scenario: dynamic downscaling from atmospheric general model output   12:00 - 12:20 PLINIUS8-A-00004 Krichak, S.; Alpert, P.; Bassat, K.; Dayan, M. An RCM Evaluation of Climate Change Trends and Uncertainties over the Eastern Mediterranean Region for GLOWA Jordan River Project   12:20 - 12:40 PLINIUS8-A-00091 Lynn, B.H.; Khain, A.; Rosenfeld, D. Impact of air pollution (aerosols) on precipitation   12:40 - 13:00 PLINIUS8-A-00042 Martín, A.; Homar, V.; Fita, LL.; Gutiérrez, J.M.; Primo, C. Testing geometric bred vectors with a mesoscale short-range ensemble prediction system over the Western Mediterranean   13:00 Cyclone Climatology and Physical Processes (1)   13:00 - 13:30 PLINIUS8-A-00034 Lionello , P. Mediterranean cyclone climatology in future climate scenarios (solicited) 13:30 LUNCH BREAK Chairperson: KHAIN, A.   14:50 - 15:10 PLINIUS8-A-00012 Ziv, B.; Saaroni, H.; Romem, M. The relationship between the Mediterranean and the European cyclones tracks - preliminary results   15:10 - 15:30 PLINIUS8-A-00055 Enzel, Y.; Sharon, D.; Dayan, U.; Ziv, B. Winter Atmospheric Circulation Patterns, Near East Excess Rainfall and Droughts and the Historic Dead Sea Lake Level Variations   15:30 - 15:50 PLINIUS8-A-00001 Yair, Y.; Price, C.; Ganot, M.; Sherz, Y.; Ziv, B.; Greenebrg, E.; Devir, A.; Yaniv, R. ; Bor, J.; Satori, G. First Detection of Transient Luminous Events Associated with Winter Thunderstorms in the Eastern Mediterranean   15:50 - 16:10 PLINIUS8-A-00065 Osetinsky, I.; Alpert, P. Calendaricities and multimodality in the Eastern Mediterranean cyclonic activity   16:10 Cyclone Climatology and Physical Processes (2)   16:10 - 16:30 PLINIUS8-A-00082 Kushnir, Y.; Ting, M.; Seager, R. Global Warming in the 20th Century: distinguishing between natural and forced climate variability   16:30 - 16:50 PLINIUS8-A-00088 Mandel, M.; Alpert, P.; Osetinsky, I. The hierarchical clustering of eastern Mediterranean daily weather into mesoscale circulations 16:50 COFFEE BREAK Chairperson: ZANGVIL, A.   17:10 - 17:30 PLINIUS8-A-00050 Reiser, H.; Kutiel, H. Rainfall Regime Uncertainty and Extreme values in the Mediterranean Basin   17:30 - 17:50 Poster Session (Poster 11 - 16 will be presented)   17:50 Cyclone Climatology and Physical Processes (3)   17:50 - 18:20 PLINIUS8-A-00101 Eshel, G. Does the Rodwell-Hoskins mechanism of summer subsidence make a good statistical predictor? (solicited)   18:20 - 18:40 PLINIUS8-A-00085 Yatagai, A.; Xie, P.; Alpert, P. Development of the daily grid precipitation dataset: Towards evaluation of the global warming effects on water resources over the East Mediterranean 18:40 END OF THE DAY Thursday, 19 October 2006 Lecture Room: Massada Hall Chairperson: KUSHNIR, Y.   9:00 - 9:20 PLINIUS8-A-00026 Weiss, M. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts   9:20 - 9:40 PLINIUS8-A-00035 Jansa, A. The challenges of the MEDEX Second Phase   9:40 - 10:00 PLINIUS8-A-00013 Kotroni, V.; Lagouvardos, K.; Lykoudis, S.; Lalas, D. Climatic projections in the Eastern Mediterranean using the regional climatic model PRECIS   10:00 - 10:20 PLINIUS8-A-00048 Halfon, N.; Kutiel, H.; Ziv, B. The rain spells in Israel- major spatial patterns and their synoptic conditions   10:20 Extreme Events and Tele-Connections (1)   10:20 - 10:40 PLINIUS8-A-00009 Rosenfeld, D. Identification and advanced warning of large hail and tornadic convective storms in the Mediterranean basin   10:40 - 11:00 PLINIUS8-A-00002 Nicolaides, K.; Savvidou, K.; Orphanou, A.; Constantinides, P.; Papachristodoulou, S.; Michaelides, S.; Savvides, M. A synoptic, dynamic and energetic study of a baroclinic depression that affected the area of Cyprus from 6 to 8 February 2006   11:00 - 11:20 PLINIUS8-A-00031 Kishcha, P.; Nickovic, S.; Alpert, P.; Ganor, E.; Kordova, L.; Stein, U. Saharan dust over the Eastern Mediterranean in spring 2006: Model sensitivity 11:20 COFFEE BREAK Chairperson: JANSA, A.   11:40 - 12:00 PLINIUS8-A-00073 Samuels, R.; Khalil, A.; Lall, U. Changing climate and extreme rainfall statistics in the Middle East   12:00 - 12:20 PLINIUS8-A-00075 Maheras, P.; Anagnostopoulou, Chr.; Tolika, K.; Kutiel, H. Extreme precipitations related to circulation types in the eastern Mediterranean   12:20 - 12:40 PLINIUS8-A-00090 Lynn, B.H.; Healy, R.; Druyan, L.M. An analysis of the potential for extreme temperature change based on observations and model simulations   12:40 Extreme Events and Tele-Connections (2)   12:40 - 13:00 PLINIUS8-A-00068 Jansa, A. The rissaga of 15-6-06 in Ciutadella (Menorca), a meteorological tsunami   13:00 - 13:20 PLINIUS8-A-00049 Kutiel, H. The North Sea – Caspian Pattern (NCP) - main atmospheric forcing affecting the temperature and precipitation regimes in the Middle East   13:20 - 13:40 PLINIUS8-A-00040 Paz, S.; Tourre, Y. M.; Cassou, C.; Kutiel, H. Atmospheric dynamics over the Mediterranean Basin: linkages with circulation patterns, precipitation, and teleconnections 13:40 LUNCH BREAK Chairperson: MICHAELIDES, S.   15:00 - 15:20 PLINIUS8-A-00060 Houssos, E. E.; Lolis, C. J.; Bartzokas, A. The atmospheric conditions over Europe and the Mediterranean, favouring snowfall events in Athens, Greece   15:20 Extreme Events and Tele-Connections (3)   15:20 - 15:40 PLINIUS8-A-00089 Smith, E.A.; Mehta, A.; Mugnai, A.; Tripoli, G.J. Impact Between Two Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones with Mid-latitude Cyclonic Storm Over Mediterranean   15:40 - 16:00 PLINIUS8-A-00039 Ferraris, L.; Brussolo, E. ; von Hardenberg, J.; Rebora, N. Verification of LAM precipitation prediction by using a stochastic downscaling model   16:00 - 16:20 PLINIUS8-A-00006 Bonacci, O. Karst flash floods 16:20 COFFEE BREAK Chairperson: FERRAIS, L.   16:50 Conference Dinner in the Cactus Garden at Kubbutz Ein Gedi - A tour in the Kibbutz including explanation on the Kibbutz like and its Botanical Garden will precede the dinner   16:50 Friday, 20 October 2006 - Desert Safari Excursion 16:50 END OF CONFERENCE View corresponding Poster Programme Back to Meeting Programme

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