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  Information - NP5.03 Model errors

Event Information
Besides their sensitivity to initial conditions, geophysical prediction systems often exhibit highly non-linear sensitivities to model error that can lead to important consequences in terms of the predictability of a system. Models such as weather, ocean and climate prediction systems are based on numerical discretizations that imply a limit for the temporal and spatial scales below which physical processes cannot be resolved by the model. Due to the non-linearity of geophysical systems, the unresolved small scales can have a fundamental influence over the large scales. Since there is no way of explicitly knowing in detail what happens at the sub-grid scales, the impact of the physical processes at these scales has to be parameterized as a function of the resolved fields.

In this session, we invite papers on issues associated with model error in general and the sensitivity of geophysical prediction systems to model error. Studies on the errors associated with the parameterization of subgrid scale processes, as well as those associated with the formulation and temporal and spatial discretization of the dynamical core, are welcome. Studies of the interaction between parameterizations and the predictability of a system (low order, intermediate or operational models), particularly those involving stochastic approaches, are especially encouraged.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers


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