Prediction is the ultimate test of science. Forecasting geophysical phenomena involves four distinct steps: data collection, the assimilation of data into a form consistent with the forecast procedure, the actual projection of the initial state into the future, and the application of the forecast.
Uncertainty is present at each step of the forecast process. Predictability is concerned about the assessment of forecast uncertainty that can be critical in many real world applications.
In this session papers that do not fall under any of the more specialized other Predictability sessions will be presented in all four major areas of the forecast process. Special emphasis will be given to the interface between the different forecast components to quantify how uncertainty propagates throughout the forecast process. In particular, papers describing theoretical and practical approaches to identifying and quantifying uncertainty at various steps in the forecast process are solicited.
Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers
AGU Nonlinear Focus Group
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