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| Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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Information - HS10.7 Hydrological change: detecting change of hydrological behaviour (co-listed in NP)
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Event Information |
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Hydrological systems are subject to many impact factors that are not stable in the long term. E.g., changing nthropogenic forcings, the long-term climate change as well as nterannual climatic variability change the boundary conditions of hydrological systems. It is widely assumed that these changes result in changes of hydrological behaviour, e.g., the recession behaviour of the hydrograph, the vulnerability to extended drought periods or floods, or the nutrient load of groundwater and surface water bodies. Consequently, a variety of model approaches are used to investigate scenarios of future development.
However, it is obvious that besides changing boundary conditions, structural changes within the system might as well occur; however, in most process models the system structure is kept constant. It is unclear how this challenge can be coped with, in particular when facing insufficient data. Consequently, the model results are plagued with high uncertainty.
Many hydrological systems have been under observation now for decades, and thus are likely to reflect the changes in different impact factors. Detecting these changes and describing them quantitatively is a major challenge that has not sufficiently been addressed by hydrologists. Besides break point and linear trend analysis, a variety of promising methods have been developed in other disciplines, like dynamic systems theory in physics or climatology which wait to be applied in hydrology. In addition, genuinely new methods might need to be developed for hydrological investigations. They would allow assessing the impact of single measures and thus serve as a base for sound water resources decision-making in a rapidly changing world, thereby strengthen the role of hydrological science in managing natural resources.
This session is intended to be a platform for exchanging ideas, methods, and results that aim at these objectives. We invite contributions that focus on instationarities and structural changes in hydrological systems, both in time and space, by means of investigating monitoring data, optical or radar surveillance, and using time series analysis, extreme value statistics, change detection algorithms, multivariate nonlinear dynamics and other approaches.
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Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers |
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 Back to Session Programme
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