EGU General Assembly 2007
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  Information - NH2.03 Uncertainty and non stationarity in flood risk predictions (co-listed in HS)

Event Information
Predicting current and future flood risk continues to be a major challenge for climatologists, hydrologists and hydraulicians. Flood risk predictions are thus characterised by considerable uncertainty, which needs to be evaluated and clearly communicated to decision-makers. Whilst we have a good qualitative understanding of the factors, such as climatic changes, land use effects and human interference in river channels and on flood plains, which lead to changes in flood frequency and flood risk, there is a clear requirement for further quantitative studies. The non-stationary nature of flood risk also challenges established risk assessment methodologies and their modelling components, such as extreme value statistics and hydraulic simulation. This session aims to review state-of-the-art flood risk assessment methodologies on different scales and experiences of recent flood events through studies that have looked at changing flood risk in terms of changes in process drivers, the physical processes occurring during flood flows and uncertainties in measurement data and modelling. We welcome submissions in the areas of changing flood frequency and risk, flood hydraulics, flood modelling, flood plain risk assessment and uncertainty analysis, and floodplain management including new approaches to hydraulic and hydrologic modelling, model calibration and validation. Further, we are interested in contributions that show what kind of information is particularly helpful for reducing uncertainty, as well as measures for flood mitigation and the cost effectivity of these measures. Since flood risk analyses have to include statements on extreme events, observation data are scarce. Therefore, we particularly invite contributions that address the issue of validation of flood risk analyses.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers


General Statement
The information contained hereafter has been compiled and uploaded by the Session Organizers via the "Organizer Session Form". The Session Organizers have therefore the sole responsibility that this information is true and accurate at the date of publication, and the conference organizer cannot accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made, and he makes no warranty, expressed or implied, with regard to the material published.

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