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Information - NH11.03 Natural Catastrophe Risk Modelling: recent development in loss modelling technology and application to insurance, risk managers and local goverments (Poster Only Session)
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Event Information |
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Destructive natural catastrophes occur regularly all around the world resulting in significant economic losses and human casualties. Recent examples of such events are the winter storms “Lothar” and “Martin”, which crossed Europe in December 1999, the August 1999 Izmit Earthquake in Turkey, the August 2002 floods in Central Europe and the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran. The large number of casualties and high value of economic loss in these events were caused by a combination of severe hazard intensity and high vulnerability of the built environment and population. Whereas hazard severity and frequency are governed solely by the natural phenomenon itself, the losses caused are controlled by the vulnerability and geographical location of the built environment relative to the area affected by the event. Natural hazard models usually estimate the hazard severity and frequency of natural phenomena. However, in order for such studies to be effective and useful for risk managers and policy makers, further efforts are needed to project their impact on built environment and human activities. Natural catastrophe risk can represent overall social and economic impacts of natural hazard on humans and the built environment. Such impacts include, among others, loss of life, injury, damage and loss to properties, business interruption and loss of profit. This integration of natural phenomena and their consequences is mathematically specified as: Risk= Hazard x Vulnerability x Value (Consequence or Exposure). Evaluating the social and economic impacts of natural catastrophes involves a number of different disciplines ranging from earth science to engineering. Significant advances have been made in computer technology in recent years regarding analytical speed and storage media, allowing catastrophe loss estimation models to be developed in a faster and more flexible manner. Computer risk modelling and its application to natural catastrophe risk management and in particular the insurance and reinsurance industry have undergone rapid development in recent years. Due to the high severity and low frequency of natural catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, as well as the rapidly changing built environment in many parts of the world, the use of historical loss record to assess potential future impacts is an inadequate means of risk assessment. Computer-based probabilistic and statistical models can be used to evaluate potential losses from future events and provide facilities for better managing potential losses. Natural catastrophe risk models may also be used by local government for risk mitigation, post-disaster reaction, recovery planning and public awareness programs. In the commercial field, such models are also used for the assessment of risk and accumulated exposure at all levels from a local to an international scale. We therefore invite contributions relating to:
- Computer modelling of natural risks
- Natural catastrophe risk modelling methodologies
- The use of GIS in natural catastrophe risk modelling
- Uncertainty and sensitivity of computer risk models
- Availability, reliability and quality of data used in natural catastrophe risk models
- Regional vs. local risk models
- Modelling the social and humanitarian impacts of natural disasters
- Natural catastrophe risk modelling of urban areas and its application to urban planning, post-disaster planning and risk mitigation.
- Building and social vulnerability of developing countries to natural disasters
- Practical applications of natural catastrophe risk models in the business and commercial environment.
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Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers |
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