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| Nonlinear Processes in Geosciences |
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Information - NP3.04 Geophysical extremes: Scaling aspects and modern statistical approaches
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Event Information |
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Geophysical processes show abundant evidence of nonlinear variability resulting from strong interactions between various structures, fields and phenomena over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. A particularly striking form of this complexity are extreme events (hurricanes, floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) which, although relatively rare, are of great societal concern on the grounds of the heavy damage that they cause.
This session will be primarily concerned with recent theoretical and empirical approaches that open new prospects to understand and to model extremes of geophysical phenomena that vary over a wide range of scales.
Session topics include (but are not limited to):
- recent empirical investigations of extremes;
- statistical estimators and data requirements;
- techniques to test a power-law fall-off in probability distributions;
- comparisons of mean and extreme phenomena;
- dynamical aspects of extremes and comparison with statistical approaches;
- multifractals, cascades and heavy probability distribution tails;
- global change assessment and extreme events evaluation;
- non-classical return period statistics and their implications.
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