EGU General Assembly 2007
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  Information - HS41 Statistical concepts in understanding and modelling hydro-climatic change (co-listed in NP, CL and AS)

Event Information
Assessment of hydro-climatic variability and change depends critically on the application of statistical concepts and models that reflect the enormous complexity of the hydro-climatic system and the ineffectiveness of purely deterministic descriptions. Concepts from probability, statistics, and stochastic processes provide tools for data analysis that quantify the climate and its evolution, and enhance understanding of the dynamics and causative mechanisms of hydro-climatic processes. They also enable the modelling of processes, the projection of their future evolution (either as stand alone tools or in combination with deterministic approaches), and the assessment of the uncertainty and limitations of projections. Traditionally, standard statistical models based on independence or simple (e.g., Markovian) dependence have been widely utilized in typical statistical tasks such as estimation and prediction of hydro-climatic parameters and processes. More recently, richer stochastic structures have been identified in the climatic system, which reflect the complex nonlinear character of this system and may have implications in assessing and predicting hydro-climatic change.

This session is designed to explore the statistical characterization and modelling of the hydro-climatic system. In particular, contributions are sought that shed light on the following issues:

- Characterization of climatic variability with emphasis on the study of teleconnections in hydro-climatic signals;
- Recent advances with respect to trend detection, attribution, significance testing, and the statistics of extremes;
- Assessment of uncertainty in hydro-climatic projections;
- Coupling of deterministic and stochastic approaches, and probabilistic descriptions of causative mechanisms;
- Spatio-temporal statistical approaches with an emphasis on statistical downscaling of deterministic climatic projections; and
- Multifractal characterization of hydro-climatic processes.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers


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