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Information - NH1.05 Propagation of uncertainty in advanced meteo-hydrological forecast systems (co-listed in AS)
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Event Information |
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The main objective of the event is to provide an interdisciplinary forum for the discussion of the present state of knowledge on dealing of uncertainty in meteo-hydrological forecast chain, considering their meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic aspects and their effects on warning forecast system.
The session will serve also to present and promote the scope of the COST CONCERTED RESEARCH ACTION 731 -- Propagation of uncertainty in advanced meteo-hydrological forecast systems.
The session aims include (but will not be limited to):
1. observations (e.g. precipitation measurements) and quality characterization;
2. assimilation of observations into NWP and hydrological models;
3. probabilistic atmospheric forecasting in a NWP system (ensembles, neural networks, other);
4. hydrological modelling with atmospheric observations and forecasts, including their associated uncertainties;
5. flood response decision making (especially protection vs. evacuation), management decisions during the event and public warnings.
It is, in short, the goal of the session to discuss the propagation of uncertainty through the various steps of modelling and decision-making. This is mainly achieved by promoting presentations between the various modelling domains, i.e. between observation and (atmospheric) modelling, between atmospheric and hydrological modelling and between hydrological modelling and end-users. With these interdisciplinary links it will be guaranteed that i) the transfer of knowledge from one community to the other is effective and ii) the entire modelling/decision making chain can be treated in an effective manner.
Presentations addressing the issue of “propagation uncertainty” in flood forecast chain are particularly welcomed.
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Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers |
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 Back to Session Programme
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