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| Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
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Information - NH9.09/NP4.06 Extreme Events: Causes and Consequences (E2 - C2)
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Event Information |
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Extreme events are a key manifestation of complex systems, in both the natural and human world. Their economic and social consequences are a matter of enormous concern. Much of science has concentrated, until recently, on understanding the mean behaviour of physical, biological or social systems and their "normal" variability. Extreme events, due to their rarity, have been hard to study and even harder to predict. As part of the European Union Framework 6 NEST initiative on "Tackling Complexity in Science", 17 different scientific institutes will be funded under the proposal "Extreme Events: Causes and Consequences (E2-C2)". This EGU special session will form a kick-off of research related to the themes of E2-C2. People from both within the project, and also very much welcome and actively encouraged people from outside the project, are invited to present research related to Extreme Events: Causes and Consequences. E2-C2's goal is to continue developing methods for the description, understanding and prediction of extreme events across a range of natural and socio-economic phenomena. We therefore solicit talks in the general area of Extreme Events, including (a) general tools to extract the distribution of extreme events from existing data sets, (b) models for extreme events anchored in complex-systems concepts, particularly that incorporate a priori knowledge about the phenomena and reproduce the data-derived distribution of events, (c) extreme event models to predict the likelihood of extreme events in prescribed time intervals. We foresee a very lively oral and poster sessions, with several key invited speakers, and welcome all extreme event contributions in this interdisciplinary session between the Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics and Natural Hazards EGU sections.
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