EGU General Assembly 2008
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  Information - NH4.10 Time, intensity and scaling in landslide hazard assessment

Event Information
An important component of landslide hazard assessment is predicting the
location and timing of landslides and their impacts. Given the present
state of knowledge, understanding, forecasting and controlling the hazard
is still an empirical task. It involves qualitative and quantitative
analyses, including regional inventories, slope parameters monitoring and
model simulations. Analysis can be performed at several spatial and
temporal scales according to the objective of the hazard assessment.
Accordingly, the techniques used to predict landslide spatial occurrences
(e.g. susceptibility) are radically different: empirical or statistical
techniques (e.g. multivariate analysis) are generally used at regional
scale; more process-based approaches (e.g. limit-equilibrium methods,
numerical deformation methods) are applied at the local scale.

However these techniques cannot still be considered truly satisfactory for
landslide hazard assessment which should include, by definition, an
evaluation of the probability of occurrence of new landslides thus
implying the consideration of a time dimension, and the evaluation of the
intensity which is a measure of the destructive potential of a landslide.
Field observations showed also that all landslide events, independent of
the type of triggering mechanism, follow a similar frequency-size
distribution; the relation between volume and area of an individual
landslide is also observed to be universal, and independent of location.
Understanding these scaling issues may be relevant for intensity
prediction in terms of spatial frequency or event size estimation.

The objective of this session is to present innovative approaches and
techniques (experimental prototypes, monitoring devices, statistical and
physically-based models) in order to better assess the temporal occurrence
and the frequency of landslide processes and where possible to assess
intensities in terms of size, velocity, thickness of the displaced debris,
volume, energy and impact forces.

This session welcomes contributions dealing with but not limited to:

• new monitoring and modelling techniques to identify landslide patterns
and possible forerunners that characterize significant changes in
landslide dynamics, and therefore time dimension;
• new modelling techniques to forecast the spatial and temporal
distribution of landslides, and their intensity at both slope and basin
• new developments on scaling laws in landslide analysis. Observation and
discussion on frequency-size distribution of events, and contribution to
the understanding of what controls the size of landslides and how the
physical processes on the single slope scale are translated into the event
statistical distribution are expected;
• new methodologies to handle the uncertainties associated to the
simulation and prediction of landslide occurrence, in order to progress
towards “satisfactory” probabilistic assessments;
• discussions of future research directions.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers


General Statement
The information contained hereafter has been compiled and uploaded by the Session Organizers via the "Organizer Session Form". The Session Organizers have therefore the sole responsibility that this information is true and accurate at the date of publication, and the conference organizer cannot accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made, and he makes no warranty, expressed or implied, with regard to the material published.

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