Information - NP5.05 Ensemble prediction in hydrology (HEPEX) (co-listed in HS & NH)
Traditionally, efforts in forecasting hydrological, as well as most other phenomena focused on finding the most likely future state. Uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions, as well as in the forecast model, have often been ignored.
Ensemble forecasting offers a practical solution for assessing forecast uncertainty. In recent years, extensive work has been accomplished by the meteorological community to produce not only quantitative precipitation forecasts but also a measure of its uncertainty through the use of meteorological ensembles.
The possibility of providing ensembles in the field of hydrology has also emerged and an international experiment, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) has been recently established. Within HEPEX, a number of open questions have been pointed out and the scope of this session is to give the floor to possible answers. In particular scientists and researchers in the various fields are invited to discuss:
1) The requirements for meteorological ensemble forecasts to support hydrological ensemble prediction and the scientific issues or questions that need to be addressed to meet these requirements.
2) The sources of uncertainty in hydrological models - The implications of hydrological models being imperfect representations of real hydrological systems.
3) How can hydrological uncertainty be accounted for?
4) How to measure (validate) performance of hydrological ensemble forecasts at different time and space scales.
5) The requirements for hydrological ensemble forecasts to support water management, emergency services and other users.
Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers
AGU Nonlinear Focus Group
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