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  Information - NH11.04 Modelling, computer-assisted simulations, and mapping of dangerous phenomena for hazard assessment

Event Information
Several types of dangerous phenomena (e.g. slope movements, lavas and pyroclastic flows, floods, soil erosion, earthquakes, tsunamis, pollution, fires, and spread of infection) pose serious risk to the human environment in many parts of the world.
This session deals with new methods of hazard analysis, modelling and mapping of dangerous phenomena by means of computer-assisted techniques.
We invite the submission of contributions on innovative approaches of simulation, as well as on novel methods of model calibration and validation, on sensitivity analyses, and on examples of hazard mapping.
"Complexity" is a fundamental element at the frontier of modern scientific research, especially when considering hazardous natural phenomena. In the past, the distinction between describing phenomena in terms of solvable differential equations marked the difference between “strong” (highly predictive) and “weak” (purely descriptive) science. However, differential equations for complex phenomena mostly lack analytical solutions. Fortunately, approximated numerical methods, commonly based on a discretisation of space-time, are now possible thanks to computer power. These methods have greatly extended the class of problems which can be solved in terms of differential equation systems. However, many problems still are computationally located beyond these methods. While new computational techniques for the solution of complex differential systems are discovered and refined, innovative numerical methods emerge from alternative computational paradigms – such as cellular automata, neuronal nets, genetic algorithms, etc. Both differential and alternative approaches rely on the dual concept “modelling and simulation”. Nowadays, assessing hazard conditions related to complex natural phenomena increasingly takes advantage of computer-assisted simulations. As a consequence, the above mentioned innovative methods (yet not completely standardised) are becoming more prevalent.
State-of-the-art research in the field of computer-assisted simulation of natural phenomena, and of related hazard mapping techniques, together with a comparative discussion on potential and limits of different modelling approaches (e.g. approaches based on differential equations, cellular automata, statistical analysis, etc.), will be among the topics of talks given by invited speakers.

Note (Publication of Proceedings): a selection of studies presented at this session will be - as always - published in a Special Issue of a relevant international Journal.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers
list of OS2:

*Ishimine Y. - Three-dimensional numerical simulations of a pyroclastic surge over natural terrain (EGU2007-A-03193)

*Di Baldassarre G., Castellarin A., Montanari A. - Flood-risk mapping: numerical analysis on the effects of a lateral weir (EGU2007-A-02004)

*Bonafede M. & Maccaferri F. - Rock-fluid interaction in the preparatory stage of earthquakes (EGU2007-A-03297)


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