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  Information - NH10.02 Investigation of historical records on Natural Hazards

Event Information
Natural extreme events like e.g. Hurricane Kathrina 2005, the recent earthquake at Kashmir, the drought in Central Europe 2003 and the Elbe flood 2002, have left their traces all over the globe and are research topics for many scientific disciplines. Despite many efforts, the scientific and technical knowledge on several aspects of floods, storms earthquakes, landslides and other natural hazards is still far from being adequate for any comprehensive risk mitigation strategy. The main goal of any natural hazard assessment is to determine the probability that a natural phenomenon occurs in a given period of time and area. The analysis of long time series and single extreme events supports the evaluation of possible hazardous consequences. The determination of historical data is mandatory to incorporate knowledge from historical events for future risk assessment, policy making and planning.
With respect to most natural processes, the temporal extent of a prediction of occurrence is based largely, if not uniquely, on historical data. Indeed, historical information can be used to establish the frequency of hazardous events and, of course dependent on a comprehensive data base, will allow to consider the magnitude of the respective event too.
This session aims to review available catalogues and databases containing historical records and data to consider single events or long time series. The advances as well as the limitations of different sources will be defined and possible applications of historical data in hazard and risk assessment and mitigation will be demonstrated. The implementation of the information from historical data in modern tools like climate change or run-off models, sensitivity analysis or scale analysis relating to natural hazards will be discussed. The results can give important impulses for a safer handling of natural hazards in planning or insurance industry.
Contributions of case studies (single events or long time series) as well as presentations dealing with methodological approaches (e.g. modelling methods, geostatistics) related to the session subject are in particular encouraged.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers


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