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MAL15

Henry Darcy Medal Lecture by Wouter Buytaert & HS Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture by Manuela I. Brunner
Convener: Maria-Helena Ramos
Presentations
| Thu, 26 May, 19:00–20:00 (CEST)
 
Room B

Thu, 26 May, 19:00–20:00

Chairperson: Maria-Helena Ramos

19:00–19:02
Introduction and citation

19:02–19:17
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EGU22-3458
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ECS
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HS Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture
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On-site presentation
Manuela Irene Brunner

Floods and droughts are often studied from a univariate perspective, which ignores their multivariate nature and can lead to risk under- or overestimation. The multivariate nature of hydrological extremes makes them particularly impactful, e.g. when they affect large areas or several components of the hydrological cycle, and should be considered when deriving frequency and magnitude estimates for hydraulic design and adaptation. However, studying multivariate extremes is challenging because different variables are related and because they are even less abundant in observational records than univariate extremes.
In this talk, I discuss different types of multivariate hydrological extremes and their dependencies including spatially co-occurring flood events, floods described by peak and volume, or droughts characterized by deficit and duration. I present different strategies to describe and model multivariate extremes, to assess their hazard potential, and to increase sample size – for example, the openly available R-package PRSim that stochastically simulates streamflow and hydrological extremes at multiple locations. I illustrate potential applications of some strategies using different large-sample datasets ranging from sets of alpine catchments in Switzerland to sets of hydro-climatologically diverse catchments in the United States and on the European continent. The strategies discussed enable a multivariate perspective in hydrological hazard assessments, which allows us to derive more comprehensive risk estimates than the classical univariate perspective commonly applied.

How to cite: Brunner, M. I.: Floods and droughts: a multivariate perspective on hazard estimation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3458, 2022.

19:17–19:22
Questions and answers

19:22–19:25
Introduction and citation

19:25–19:50
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EGU22-10506
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Henry Darcy Medal Lecture
Wouter Buytaert

Globally, the terrestrial water cycle is changing rapidly, because of human interventions in catchment hydrological processes, and changing meteorological boundary conditions. Many of these changes have a negative impact on the water security of people living within and nearby those catchments. Plenty of scientific evidence points to increasing intensities and frequencies of floods and droughts and degrading water resources in many parts of the world. While increasing water security is globally high on the policy agenda, there are clearly no easy solutions to this problem. Catchments are complex, idiosyncratic systems from which society draws many different resources and services, and many of these activities affect the local hydrological processes and the human benefits and risks that emanate from those. 

Achieving global water security is therefore only possible with solutions that are tailored to these specific local characteristics and realities. Analysing cases from the Andes, the Himalayas, and Africa, in this lecture I set out to identify crucial ingredients for successful catchment interventions, as well as some of the main scientific challenges that remain. I start from the conceptualization of a catchment as a complex adaptive system, governed by a unique combination of natural, social, and cultural processes. 

A first step then involves characterizing and quantifying these processes, which requires data collection and measuring. Although high-quality data are severely lacking in most of the world, many new opportunities are emerging. These range from remote sensing and pervasive in-situ sensor networks to novel data collection arrangements such as participatory monitoring and citizen science. In a next step, potential catchment interventions must be identified and evaluated. Also here, the toolbox of the catchment managers is growing continuously, with new concepts such as green infrastructure and nature-based solutions gaining traction. However, evaluating different potential interventions requires careful scenario analysis. Computational models, as well as uncertainty and risk assessment, are crucial tools to do so, but it also involves a thorough analysis of the (potentially complex and interacting) benefits and disbenefits that each intervention exerts on various population groups. Lastly, long term monitoring and evaluation of catchment interventions remains a formidable challenge, even though it is a crucial element to ensure that interventions effectively generate the anticipated benefits, to mitigate unexpected side-effects, and to adjust and adapt to constantly changing boundary conditions and catchment dynamics.

How to cite: Buytaert, W.: Local solutions for global water security, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10506, 2022.

19:50–20:00
Questions and answers