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HS5.3

EDI
Water resources policy and management – system scale solutions for uncertain futures

While water plays a critical role in sustaining human health, food security, energy production and ecosystem services, factors such as population growth, climate and land use change increasingly threaten water quality and quantity. The complexity of water resources systems requires methods integrating technical, economic, environmental, legal, and social issues within frameworks that help design and test efficient and sustainable water management strategies to meet the water challenges of the 21st century. System-scale analyses adopt practical, problem-oriented approaches for addressing the most challenging water issues of our times. These include competing objectives for water, multi-stakeholder planning and negotiation processes, multi-sector linkages, and dynamic adaptation under uncertainty. The session will feature state-of-the-art contributions to system-scale water management solutions for an uncertain environment.

Convener: Marta ZanioloECSECS | Co-conveners: Jazmin Zatarain SalazarECSECS, Jan Kwakkel, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Julien Harou
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–11:50 (CEST)
 
Room 2.15

Fri, 27 May, 08:30–10:00

Chairperson: Jazmin Zatarain Salazar

08:30–08:35
Introduction

08:35–08:45
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EGU22-1735
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solicited
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Virtual presentation
Paul Block et al.

Climate and weather-related disasters are increasingly expensive and deadly. Hydrologic catastrophes are especially devastating, accounting for over half of all disasters and global disaster victims. Novel approaches are desperately needed for vulnerable communities subject to hydrologic and water-related crises. Post-disaster assistance is a crucial component of disaster relief, however the potential for reducing humanitarian impacts through anticipatory, pre-disaster planning and actions cannot be overstated.  Short-term early warning systems are common, yet hydrologic forecasts at monthly or seasonal scales are relatively underused to guide preparatory actions, despite their potential value. Empirical evidence suggests that pre-disaster actions can reduce loss of life and property and result in cost savings for relief and governmental organizations. Such interventions often flow through water management systems, highlighting the central role of water resources decision-making in hazard resilience.

Various humanitarian relief agencies have recently developed operational early action protocols, conditioned on forecasts and risk analysis, outlining trigger criteria and identifying early actions. Concurrently, an extensive number of subseasonal-to-seasonal climate forecast products are now available to derive hydrologic forecasts. Thus there exists significant potential to tailor subseasonal-to-seasonal hydrologic forecast products to appropriately trigger a suite of preparedness actions and decisions across multiple lead times.  Various frameworks exist to understand pareto trade-offs in actions and financing, including community-based constraints and preferences.  These approaches respond to the strong demand for large-scale, multi-sectoral hydrologic forecast and management tools to enable early preparedness for anticipated drought and flood extremes.

How to cite: Block, P., Lala, J., and Bazo, J.: Enhancing anticipatory actions for disaster preparedness considering physical and social factors, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1735, 2022.

08:45–08:52
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EGU22-11159
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ECS
Seleshi Yalew et al.

Justice in the allocation and distribution of water is one of the most recent topics in the water resources management literature. This topic, i.e., justice/equity/fairness, is especially noteworthy in integrated water resources management where competing needs, sectors, and societal segments are involved in the utilization of water. Although the concept of justice, such as procedural justice, in general and in water management in particular is not as new, the concept of distributive justice and tools and technics for the allocation and distribution of water resources is very recent. As a result, particularly tools and techniques for the operationalization of such concepts are still lacking.

In this study, we operationalized theoretical justice theories in terms of moral principles into functions and parameters for use with traditional water resources optimization models and frameworks. These moral principles include Utilitarianism (which evaluates measures according to their effect on welfare), Sufficientarianism (which makes sure that each individual gets a sufficient threshold),  Prioritarianism (which guarantees extra weight to worse-off individuals), and envy-freeness (which requires that each individual prefers his share to the share of others).

The result of the study as applied in the case study of the Susquehanna basin, USA, displays undertanding and outlooks of various perspectives of fairness on integrated water resources management among competing stakeholders and needs. Such perspectives are presented together with traditional resource efficiency and/or conservation oriented optimization techniques and methods to highlight synergy and trade-offs in integrated water resources management. We think that the methods and approaches presented here will advance the scientific discussion on the operationalization of justice/equity/fairness in real-world modeling and management of integrated water resources.

How to cite: Yalew, S., Kwakkel, J., Zatarain Salazar, J., and Doorn, N.: Operationalizing Justice in Integrated Water Resources Modeling and Management , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11159, 2022.

08:52–08:59
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EGU22-4242
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Peyman Arjomandi A. et al.

The human-generated systems typically meet biophysical ones within different geographical terrains. The space where those systems face each other is framed at the human-crafted and natural scales. Conventionally such sphere is a contestation field where various levels of contributing scales confront to embed a functional system. The water governing systems are as of the frequently debated of such systems. They resemble controversial evidence in the course of conflicts between hydrological and administrative/institutional scales. Indeed, due to the dominancy of human-determined objectives to the environmental requirements, the water governing systems have not considered reasonably the requisite of natural cycles in many areas. This issue produces externalities and mismatches between human-formulated and hydrological systems. To enhance the governance, there is a need to detect problems which arise from unfit of those systems in associated levels. Therefore, an inferential methodology which is able to capture and project the water (demand/supply) governing system state is being developed. The methodology encompasses incorporation of a system cost formulation approach. Besides, the system status in relation to microscopic configurations of its components is appraised through the method. This inscribed that a unique macroscopic state driven by a certain configuration is reflectable as a cost system bears in respect to its structure. Such cost is a theoretical estimate to measure the impact of a confiscated structure on the effectiveness of governing system. Correspondingly, the induced inefficiencies by the misfit between human-designed and biophysical systems are diagnosable through the comparison of system costs associated to pertinent structures/configurations.

How to cite: Arjomandi A., P., Seyedi, S., and Komendantova, N.: Water Governing Systems: addressing conflicts between hydrological and institutional scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4242, 2022.

08:59–09:06
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EGU22-6023
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On-site presentation
Rafael J. P. Schmitt et al.

Dams and reservoirs are crucial components for the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus but have major impacts on rivers and people. Future dams would compound impacts of existing dams and threaten so far undammed river systems. Recent research has highlighted threats from future hydropower dams and opportunities to reduce impacts through better infrastructure planning and proliferation of other renewable energy. Yet, while irrigation storage was a major driver for dam development in the past, the role of water storage in future food systems and the associated benefits and impacts has not been part of debates around future dams.

Here, we provide a global analysis that fuses global hydrologic modeling and infrastructure assessments to (1) quantify future demands for irrigation storage, (2) its role for food security, and (3) the contribution of existing and identified potential reservoirs to future irrigation. For that, we firstly analyze potentials for future sustainable (i.e., on existing croplands and without depleting environmental flows) irrigation and determine how much storage is needed to match water availability and crop water demand on a river basin level. Secondly, we quantify how much food could be grown with that water. Lastly, we perform a Monte-Carlo Analysis for all current and potential dams to robustly estimate possible water allocations from current and future dams to irrigation, and thus the role of this water infrastructure for global food security.

We find that future irrigated agriculture will require 460 km3/yr of water storage, 265 km3/yr on land that is already irrigated and 195 km3/yr on land that is currently rainfed. Much of that additional storage will be required in South Asia and West Africa. This storage-fed irrigation could grow enough food for 1.15 billion people. Yet even all current and future dams could only meet around 60 % of that potential.

Our results provide spatially explicit global information on (1) irrigation storage as important externality and cost factor for future food systems, (2) challenges for the WEF nexus in meeting concurrent demands for irrigation and hydropower, (3) the need to include irrigation in strategic impact/benefit assessments for future dams, and (4) urge to evaluate alternatives to large dams for future agricultural water storage.

How to cite: Schmitt, R. J. P., Rosa, L., and Daily, G.: Irrigation storage is a blind spot for analyzing and mitigating externalities of future water infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6023, 2022.

09:06–09:13
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EGU22-5817
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ECS
Valerio Barbarossa and Rafael Schmitt

Dams contribute to water security, energy supply, and flood protection but also fragment habitats of freshwater fishes, limiting their dispersal ability and impairing fish movements to feeding and spawning grounds. This endangers freshwater biodiversity and the livelihoods and food security of people depending on freshwater fish.  Globally, only 37% of rivers longer than 1,000 km remain free-flowing. Habitat fragmentation levels for fish are highest in North America, Europe, India, and China. However, the expansion in hydropower capacity driven by national plans and energy transition scenarios will increase habitat fragmentation by 20-40 percentage points in fish diversity hotspots like the Amazon, Congo, and Mekong basins, with potentially detrimental consequences for fishes. Therefore, it is paramount to understand opportunities to reconcile needs for expanding renewable hydropower while preserving habitat for fish and associated benefits for humans. Using the Mekong as a case study, we prototype a tool to optimize tradeoffs between habitat fragmentation and energy benefits for basin-level dams’ portfolios based on global data sets. Such an approach can close an important gap in policy and trade-off analyses for hydropower which, because of lacking data, do not commonly include biotic impacts of dams as a metric. Based on a genetic algorithm, the approach allows identifying which dams to develop, remove, or upgrade with fish passages in order to reach the greatest benefits for future renewable energy systems with the least impact on fish populations.

How to cite: Barbarossa, V. and Schmitt, R.: Accounting for fish habitat fragmentation in global strategic assessments of future hydropower dam portfolios, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5817, 2022.

09:13–09:20
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EGU22-18
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Virtual presentation
André St-Hilaire et al.

Environmental flows (eflows) refer to the amount of water required to sustain aquatic ecosystems. In its formal definition, three flow characteristics are listed that need to be minimally maintained: quantity, timing and quality. Ssome of the current tools used for eflow determination in the context of an evolving climate are based on hydrological metrics. Some of the potential caveats associated with their usage are caused by the fact that flow time series are increasingly non-stationarity. Timing of low flow events will also likely change within a season, but will also likely shift in seasonality in some regions. Flow quality is a multi-faceted concept. It is proposed that a first simple step to partly incorporate flow quality in future analyses is to include water temperature as a covariate.  An example of this combination of flow and temperature is provided for Eastern Canada.

How to cite: St-Hilaire, A., Berthot, L., Ferchichi, H., and Caissie, D.: Tools to develop environmental flow guidelines in an uncertain future hydrological context, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-18, 2022.

09:20–09:27
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EGU22-1301
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ECS
The effects of incorporating agricultural conservation practices at the farm- and management-scales in the Czech landscape
(withdrawn)
Nina Noreika et al.
09:27–09:34
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EGU22-6680
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Zhaowei Ding et al.

Joint climate and land cover change can significantly alter catchment hydrologic response, e.g., in terms of runoff and sediment delivery, and thus key determinants for downstream hydropower outcomes. While many studies highlight climate risk for hydropower operation, it is less clear how climate and landuse change together will impact hydropower outcomes, if managing landuse can reduce those impacts, and how to prioritize effective investments in the face of uncertainty about the future climatic drivers.

In this study, we use Chaglla Dam, Peru’s third largest electricity generator, to develop an ensemble approach to identify parts of Chaglla’s contributing area with consistent changes in runoff and sediment under climate change. Those areas could then be targeted for maintaining or restoring natural land cover to increase baseflow and decrease sediment. We use SWAT to model catchment response for a large ensemble of climate trajectories based on latest CMIP 6 data, downscaled using multiple state-of-the-art algorithms and high-resolution regional weather observations (Figure 1 A and B). Based on the results, we identify parts of the catchment with greatest changes in water yield.  We find that 35 % of the watershed area shows consistent trends in water yield and sediment across all climate scenarios.

Climate risks will increase in the near and midterm future with increases the length of low-flow periods (up to 40 %) and increases in sediment (up to 17 %). Compared to that, additional changes in water and sediment because of projected land use change are relatively minor (+ 0.3 % in low-flow length and + 0.7 % in sediment).

Yet, our study introduces a spatially-explicit framework for analyzing large ensembles of climate and landuse projections to identify where future change will translate in most change in hydrologic parameters related to hydropower. Results enable to study if investing in catchment conservation in those areas will significantly improve hydropower outcomes and will thus help to develop management plans for hydropower catchment that are robust under future change.

How to cite: Ding, Z., Angarita, H., Montesino Cárceres, C., Lavado-Casimiro, W., David Barreto Escobedo, C., Guerrero, L., Zheng, H., and Schmitt, R.: Studying spatial agreement of catchment response to climate and landuse change under uncertainty for prioritizing investment into hydropower catchments , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6680, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6680, 2022.

09:34–09:41
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EGU22-9862
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Ivan Lagos-Castro et al.

Adapting water systems to climate is one of the most significant challenges. Nowadays, the research focus has been shifted from understanding climate change phenomena to studying its impacts on water resource systems in detail. Facing this challenge requires rigorous methodologies that increase the confidence in the climate models outputs, consider the physical complexity of our systems, and consider other factors such as population growth or the use of technologies enabling water saving.

This study presents a robust methodology to estimate climate change impacts on a complex water resources system, including changes in water consumption. It relies on a modelling chain involving climate, hydrological, and water resource system models. Future hydrological scenarios are generated by forcing a conceptual lumped hydrological model by bias-adjusted climate change CMIP5 scenarios. A joint meteorological-hydrological innovative process is used to assess and rank each scenario according to its performance in reproducing the climate and streamflow historical patterns and the streamflow change signal between two periods in a basin. Hydrological projections are used to feed a water resource system model, which includes the main physical and management complexities. By using this model, two complementary impact characterizations were defined: 1) assessing the impacts on the system only as a result of climate change; and 2) incorporating complexities inherent to the basin on top of climate change scenarios, such as the increase in water demand associated with population growth and the improvement in water use efficiencies after adopting better technologies.

This methodology is applied to the Turia River Basin (eastern Spain), a highly regulated system characterized by a strong variation in seasonal streamflows, intensive water use in urban and agriculture, and recurrent droughts. The system demands are supplied by surface and groundwater resources, water transfers from the neighboring Jucar river basin, and reclaimed wastewater reuse. The 18 available climate change trajectories from EURO-CORDEX for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 were evaluated, and 12 were selected due to their satisfactory meteorological and hydrological performance. A water resources system model was built in the AQUATOOL Decision Support System (DSS) shell. We found that the entire water resources system could suffer significant adverse impacts even in the short term. Moreover, the projections show decreases in the water storage in reservoirs, increases in pumped water from aquifers, and increments in deficits to urban and agricultural demands. However, the methodology results also concluded that improvements in irrigation efficiencies in the Turia basin are an efficient measure to face the impacts of climate change.

 

Acknowledgements:

This study has been supported by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00), funded by the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain including EU FEDER funds; the SÀPIDES project (INNEST/2021/276) funded by the Agència Valenciana de la Innovación (AVI), from the Generalitat Valenciana; and the Subvencions del Programa per a la promoció de la investigación científica, el desenvolupament tecnològic i la innovació a la Comunitat Valenciana (PROMETEO) under the WATER4CAST project.

How to cite: Lagos-Castro, I., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Macian-Sorribes, H., and Pedro-Monzonis, M.: Assessing the impact of climate and water demand change on hydrology and water resources in the Turia river basin, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9862, 2022.

09:41–09:56
Discussion

Fri, 27 May, 10:20–11:50

Chairperson: Jazmin Zatarain Salazar

10:20–10:27
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EGU22-12831
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Alba Solans et al.

In the context of climate uncertainty, planning for resilient, robust and adaptive water measures to achieve social, economic and environmental objectives, is a challenge.

The aim of this study is to identify critical climatic conditions that cause system failure in a Mediterranean basin in order to evaluate vulnerabilities and design robust and adaptive measures of water supply. The methodology employed adopts a stress test under non-stationary climatic conditions consisting of: 1) generation of meteorological scenarios, by using a weather generator, 2) generation of hydrological scenarios by using a hydrological model, and 3) evaluation of system performance by using a water resource system model whose outcomes are used to identify climatic vulnerabilities .

Meteorological scenarios are built using, first, a weather generator at the sub-basin scale that generates synthetic precipitation (P) and temperature (T) time series at annual scale by using autorregressive models to extract low-frequency signals. Afterwards, these series are disaggregated to the monthly scale by the method of fragments. Finally, climate change modifications are introduced to alter weather variables outside of the range of historical variability. Changes in the precipitation monthly mean ranged from -30% to +30%, using increments of 15% (5 increments). The coefficient of variation of monthly precipitation changed from -30% to +30%, using increments of 30% (3 increments). A quantile mapping method altered the distribution of monthly precipitation. For temperature, shifts in the monthly mean ranged from 0ºC to 3ºC by increments of 1ºC (4 increments). An standard additive method was used for altering temperature distribution. The combination among modifications led to a total of 60 (5 x 3 x 4) climate change scenarios to consider.

This methodology is applied to the Serpis River basin, which has an area of 752.8 km2 and it is regulated by one reservoir whose main function is water supply to agriculture. A total of 434 generation runs per scenario were developed in MATLAB® in order to explore model uncertainty.

Potential evapotranspiration (ETP) time series were estimated from T by using a periodic factor previously obtained from historical data and using Fourier series method. A hydrological semi-distributed model (Temez model) was employed to transform meteorological data into hydrological discharges.

A water resource system model built using the GAMS software (General Algebraic Modeling System) was applied to evaluate the performance of the river network system and to identify critical conditions for allocation reliability. Identification of adaptation actions was based on future risk and the likelihood of future conditions that was defined by a high convergence in the GCM predictions from CMIP6.

How to cite: Solans, A., Macian-Sorribes, H., Martinez-Capel, F., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: Vulnerability assessment for climate adaptation planning in a mediterranean basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12831, 2022.

10:27–10:34
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EGU22-10085
Anna Costa et al.

Climate and socio-economic changes bring multiple challenges to river basin development worldwide. The large uncertainty characterizing future conditions requires robust and adaptive planning and management solutions capable of handling uncertain future changes. This is particularly true in monsoonal Southeast Asian catchments, where large multipurpose reservoir systems play a crucial role in flood protection and providing water, energy, and food to a rapidly changing society. In such river basins, high intra-annual and inter-annual hydroclimatic variability, as well as increasing frequency of extreme events, further challenge the management of multi-sector water demands across multiple time scales.

In this context, we develop a robust decision-analytic framework for supporting the strategic planning of river basins in monsoonal areas with respect to future changes in water availability and demands. The framework integrates future climate scenarios, including a catalogue of extreme climate events, future water demand scenarios, a high-resolution infrastructure-accounting hydrological model, Topkapi-ETH, and a strategic, operational model to design multiobjective optimal water management policies. We first build climate change driven projections of water availability; second, we apply the optimization engine to select a subset of operation policies optimized based on key selected indicators; and third, we use the spatially distributed hydrological model to evaluate the impact of the chosen policies on a broader set of indicators capturing the spatially distributed impact of dam operations.

We focus here on the Red River Basin, a large transboundary river basin in China and Vietnam. In the basin, conflicts among different water uses, such as flood control, hydropower production, agriculture and aquaculture, are expected to increase under the combined pressure of increasing water and energy demands and climate change. A specific focus is given to extreme rainfall events, expected to increase their frequency and magnitude. The framework proposed will allow us to assess the vulnerability of the basin under future scenarios as well as the sustainability and robustness of future river basin development plans in the context of the water-energy-food-environment nexus.

How to cite: Costa, A., Giuliani, M., Sinclair, S., Peleg, N., van der Linden, R., Truong, V. A., Fink, A. H., Castelletti, A., and Burlando, P.: Robust River Basin planning under extreme climate events and socio-economic changes: the Red River Basin in China-Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10085, 2022.

10:34–10:41
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EGU22-11884
Tohid Erfani et al.

Planning for sustainable future water resources needs to consider multiple goals like cost and resilience. The ability to adapt given uncertainties about climate change, population growth and other unknowns should be embedded into planning approaches. Adaptive planning can help meet future needs and reduce the risk of over-investment, capitalizing on the upside situation of future supply-demand balances being less stressed than anticipated. In this study, we propose a multi-objective real-options based multi-stage formulation well- suited to regulated water utilities with a regular planning cycle. The formulation can be used to explore the trade-offs between long term water management plan’s resilience and financial costs while considering the effects of different types of demand growth and supply side uncertainties. Using London's water resource and supply system as a case study, we demonstrate how the generalized approach can be applied to reveal the cost-resilience trade-off delineated by different efficient planning alternatives.

How to cite: Erfani, T., Pachos, K., Huskova, I., Matrosov, E., and Harou, J.: Multiobjective and real-options based planning for adaptive and robust water resources, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11884, 2022.

10:41–10:48
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EGU22-12450
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Sai Veena and Riddhi Singh

The spatiotemporal variation of water resources and growing global requirements for freshwater necessitates planning and construction of water resource infrastructure to enable the management of a variable and potentially scarce resource. Large-scale water infrastructure serves multiple purposes including provisioning of freshwater, protection from floods, navigation, hydroelectricity, etc. At present, more than 16.7 million reservoirs with an area greater than 100 m2 exist, a majority of which serve multiple water sectors. Decision analysis for reservoir systems relies heavily on optimization techniques that identify optimal operational strategies for a dynamic systems model. All optimization frameworks require the analyst to define performance indicators, more formally, objective functions, that aggregate performance across multiple time periods in a planning horizon. A question thus arises: does the manner in which objective functions are aggregated have a substantial impact on resultant optimal operational strategy? For complex reservoir systems such as inter-basin water transfers, which require coordinating operations across multiple reservoirs, the temporal scale of operations likely impacts the system's performance. Here, we assess the impact of temporal aggregation of the objective function on resultant operational strategies for a proposed inter-basin water transfer in Southern India. We optimize monthly water transfer decisions using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm that optimizes for the reliability of demand satisfaction at multiple temporal resolutions (annual, seasonal, fortnightly). We then re-evaluate the performance of all resultant strategies at fortnightly resolution. We find strategies obtained by optimizing reliability at an annual resolution that release water based on annual demands outperform the other two resolutions. This improvement in performance requires the presence of additional storage structures like lakes, ponds, check dams, etc. in the reservoir system, which is true in our study region. We further quantify the dependency between decision variables across these formulations to better understand the convergence dynamics of the optimization algorithm.

How to cite: Veena, S. and Singh, R.: On temporal resolution of performance indicators of water resources systems , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12450, 2022.

10:48–10:55
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EGU22-10126
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Virtual presentation
Charles Rougé et al.

Assessing the robustness of a water resource system to climate change involves exploring a range of streamflow conditions. For this, rainfall-runoff models are routinely to produce future streamflow, using as inputs either climate model projections or modified historical hydro-climatic conditions. However, these models have generally been calibrated and validated under historical conditions, and there is no guarantee that calibrated parameters would still be valid in a different climate. Indeed, recent literature suggests that rainfall-runoff models’ predictive skill decreases with changed climatic conditions especially when predicting drier climates. What is more, rainfall-runoff models require time, expertise and input data to calibrate and validate against the historical streamflow record.

With this abstract, we propose an alternative approach based on a near-universal parameterisation of flow duration curves (FDCs), and perturbation of these parameters to simulate a range of futures. Our method represents FDCs with a three-parameter function called the Kosugi model, which has been shown to provide an excellent approximation to FDCs under a wide range of climates. We directly relate these three parameters with three streamflow statistics that are of interest to water resource management: median, coefficient of variation, and first percentile. These values represent central tendency, variability, and low flow characteristics respectively. As a result, a broad range of changes in streamflow can be related to modified parameters, and our method goes through the following steps: (1) Kosugi model parameters are calibrated with a historical FDC, (2) a set of scenarios with modified flow statistics are determined, (3) a new set of coefficients of the Kosugi model are derived for each future scenario, (4) future scenarios are created by using these coefficients.

We apply this method to represent possible climate change impacts on the hydrology of seven headwater basins from different geographical and climatic conditions in Turkey. Preliminary results show that this method provides a dramatically large range of inflows, with increased frequency of high flows and low flows to better represent hydrological variability and extremes. This then supports robustness analyses for rivers for which no detailed hydrological model is available: here, on the financial viability of run-of-river hydropower design in a changing climate. The method supports time series with a large number of no-flow days.

How to cite: Rougé, C., Yildiz, V., and Brown, S.: Perturbing the flow duration curve to explore future flow conditions without a hydrological model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10126, 2022.

10:55–11:02
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EGU22-3405
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Zhipin Ai et al.

Desalination water is a vital source of freshwater for regions with coastal water scarcity. Identifying the geographic distribution of global seawater desalination plants enables a spatially detailed water sources assessment. In this study, which is the first of its kind, we investigated the potential application of species distribution models (SDMs), which are widely used in ecology, to predict the global spatial distribution of seawater desalination plants. Two regression SDMs, a generalized linear model (GLM) and a generalized additive model (GAM), along with two machine learning SDMs, a random forest (RF) model and a generalized boosted regression model (GBM), were trained and tested using the cross-validation method at 0.5 degrees. For each SDM, we considered four explanatory variables: aridity, distance to seashore, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the sum of annual domestic and industrial water withdrawal. Our results showed that the four SDMs have good accuracy according to three different evaluation metrics. An ensemble presence map was then created from the four individual SDM predictions. Finally, we mapped the future distribution of seawater desalination plants. Due to the increases in aridity, GDP per capita, and domestic and industrial water withdrawal, the total number of presence grid cells is predicted to increase from 2014 figures by 37%, 47%, 35%, and 30% in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. Using future predictions such as these, our study can contribute to integrated global water resources assessments. Our findings also provide insight into how SDMs can be used for predicting the geographic locations of water management facilities.

How to cite: Ai, Z., Ishihama, F., and Hanasaki, N.: Identifying the geographic distribution of seawater desalination plants globally using species distribution models, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3405, 2022.

11:02–11:09
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EGU22-4624
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Veronica Piuri et al.

Water scarcity is one of the major challenges of the century. Climate change and population growth are exacerbating this problem, especially in river basins with arid climates such as the Middle East or North Africa, calling for the design of integrated water management strategies to meet competing water demands in interconnected Water-Energy-Food systems. In this work, we explore the potential for integrating innovative technological solutions, namely desalination and aquaponics, into conventional water management measures to mitigate existing tradeoffs. Our approach is demonstrated on the Nile River basin, a paradigmatic example of transboundary river basins where the overexploited traditional water sources cannot fully satisfy the increasing water demands, thus requiring innovative solutions to address this challenge. Here, we first investigate the optimal operation of the major water infrastructures in the basin to explore the tradeoffs between hydropower generation and irrigation supply across Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Then, we analyse the role of desalination and aquaponics in reducing the Egyptian water demand in the Nile delta and mitigating the existing tradeoffs. Desalination is widely used in many of the Middle East’s countries and offers the possibility to unlock the potential contribution of sea water in meeting the water demand of the coastal region. Aquaponics is a soilless agricultural technique characterized by lower levels of water consumption than traditional techniques. For both desalination and aquaponics, we run an exploratory analysis to understand the key technological parameters influencing the successful uptake of these solutions. Our results aim to demonstrate the effectiveness of integrated management solutions in arid river basins and explore the potential uptake of new technologies for reducing agricultural water demands. These measures contribute in increasing the flexibility of water management strategies in arid areas when coping with water scarcity while improving water quality conditions.

How to cite: Piuri, V., Yang, G., and Giuliani, M.: Exploring the potential of desalination and aquaponics in the integrated management of arid river basins: the case of the Nile River basin, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4624, 2022.

11:09–11:16
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EGU22-965
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Zahra Karimidastenaei et al.

Water scarcity is a serious socio-environmental challenge for sustainable development which is recognized as a potential cause of social conflict within and between countries. It is expected to intensify due to increasing water demands from increasing populations, rapid urbanization, industrialization, and climate changes. With predictions of dire global water scarcity, attention is turning to Unconventional Water Resources (UWRs) which are considered as supplementary water resources that need specialized processes to be used as water supply. The literature encompasses a vast number of studies on various UWRs and their usefulness in certain environmental and/or socio-economic contexts. Considering the increasing importance of UWRs in the global push for water security, the current study intends to offer a nuanced understanding of the existing research on UWRs by summarizing the key concepts in the literature. The number of articles published on UWRs have increased significantly over time and most publications were authored from researchers based in the USA or China, India, Iran, and Spain. Here, twelve general types of UWRs including fog, dew, rainwater harvesting, and cloud seeding as Atmospheric Unconventional Water (AUW); artificial recharge, fossil water as Unconventional Ground Water (UGW); iceberg water and virtual water as Transferred Unconventional Water (TUW), and wastewater, desalinated water, and agricultural drainage water as Processed Unconventional Water (PUW), were used to assess their global distribution, showing that climatic conditions are the main driver for the application of certain UWRs. Overall, the literature review demonstrated that, even though UWRs provide promising possibilities for overcoming water scarcity, current knowledge is patchy and points towards UWRs being, for the most part, limited in scope and applicability due to geographic, climatic, economic, and political constraints. Future studies focusing on improved quantitative documentation and demonstration of the physical and socio-economic potential of various UWRs could help in strengthening the case for some, if not all, UWRs as avenues for the sustainable provision of water.

Keywords: Water scarcity; UWRs; distribution maps; literature review

How to cite: Karimidastenaei, Z., Avellán, T., Sadegh, M., Kløve, B., and Torabi Haghighi, A.: Unconventional Water Resources: A golden opportunity to mitigate the mismatch between water supply and water demand, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-965, 2022.

11:16–11:23
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EGU22-10009
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Chengxin Luo et al.

Severe droughts are challenging the development of society and economy worldwide. Whilst hedging rules for reservoir operations contribute to reduce the risk of unacceptably severe water shortage during droughts, they could be of trivial value for some reservoir water supply systems considering water supply reliability, vulnerability and resilience. There is still no consensus on the quantitative characteristics of water system hedging rules should be applied to. In this work, reservoir water level named as drought limited water level(DLWL) is employed to trigger practical zone-based water supply rule firstly. Then the impact of DLWL on the water supply performance is analyzed with a range of hypothetical reservoir water supply systems. Based on it, characteristics of reservoirs which DLWL should not be applied to is identified using scenario discovery. For these reservoirs, main influencing factors are revealed and effective drought management measures to ensure reliable water supply are proposed accordingly. For the rest reservoirs that DLWL should be applied to, a multi-objective DLWL optimization method is proposed and applied to Qing Reservoir, a typical water supply reservoir in Northern China. The influence of changing environment on DLWL is studied with a comprehensive sample of deeply uncertain factors. Results show that hedging policy triggered by DLWL has a remarkable advantage over the standard operation rules to mitigate effect of drought. To adapt to increasing water supply pressure featured with increasing demand, decreasing streamflow volume and more variable streamflow, DLWLs during high water demand period ought to be raised and DLWLs during dry season ought to be reduced. Insights from this work have general merit for taking the most effective measures to relieve water shortage and regulate existing hedging rules to adapt to changing environment.

How to cite: Luo, C., Ding, W., Xu, B., and Zhang, C.: Characteristics of reservoirs to mitigate drought effects with a hedging rule triggered by drought limited water level , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10009, 2022.

11:23–11:30
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EGU22-8944
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Jen Steyaert and Laura Condon

There are over 2,000 large reservoirs with a storage capacity greater than 1 million cubic meters (MCM) in the contiguous United States (CONUS). While many of these structures are documented in static datasets that include spatial locations and general characteristics (such as maximum storage capacity), there has previously been no comprehensive dataset of historical reservoir operations. To remedy this gap, we have assembled ResOpsUS, the first national dataset of historical reservoir operations. ResOpsUS contains historical time-series of storage, inflow, outflow, elevation, and evaporation data for 679 large reservoirs in CONUS. Here we use the unique ResOpsUS dataset to analyze storage trends over the last 40 years, identify potential causes of regional differences in reservoir variance and evaluate the relationship between meteorological drought and reservoir storage. Our preliminary analysis demonstrates that reservoir storage capacity in CONUS hit a limit in the early 1980s and no longer increased. Additionally, reservoir storage has decreased over the past 20 years with the magnitude of decrease greater in more arid regions.  Finally, correlations between precipitation and reservoir storage depict more direct relationships in wetter climates compared to drier climates where reservoirs are a necessary water supply during dry periods and thus storage in drier years may be higher than in wetter years.

How to cite: Steyaert, J. and Condon, L.: Historical analysis of large reservoir storage resilience and vulnerabilities in CONUS, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8944, 2022.

11:30–11:37
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EGU22-13134
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Elsayed Elkamhawy et al.

Water resources face global and local challenges. In Egypt, for example,  the negative impacts of climatic changes and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), cause a shortage of water resources. Shortage of water resources is considered an urgent issue particularly in semiarid regions (like many MENA countries) and arid ones (like Egypt). Therefore, the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation has launched the national project of canals rehabilitation and lining for effective water resource management and decreasing seepage losses. This study dealt with three different lining techniques, as well cracked-liner for the Ismailia canal, which is considered the largest end of the Nile in Egypt. A steady-state 2-D seep/w model was established for the Ismailia canal section, at the stretch from 28  to 49 km. The results showed that the amount of seepage was considerably depending on the hydraulic characteristics of the lining material. Pumping from aquifers through wells also has a significant influence on the seepage rate from the unlined canal. Nevertheless, a negligible effect was present in the lined canal case. The highest efficiency was obtained with the concrete liner, after that the geomembrane liner, and then the bentonite liner; with nearly 99%, 96%, and 54%, respectively, in the case of no pumping from aquifer via wells. The efficiency decreased by 4% for the bentonite and geomembrane liners during pumping from the aquifer, but the concrete liner efficiency did not change significantly. However, in the case of deterioration of the lining material through cracks, the efficiency strictly decreased to 25%, irrespective of the utilized lining technique. The dual effect of both cracked-liner material and extraction from the aquifer via pumping wells revealed an efficiency of 16%, regardless of the utilized liner type.

How to cite: Elkamhawy, E., Zelenakova, M., Straface, S., Vranayová, Z., Negm, A. M., Scozzari, A., and Abd-Elaty, I.: Seepage loss from unlined, lined, and cracked-lined canals: a case study of Ismailia canal reach from 28.00–49.00 Km, Egypt, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13134, 2022.

11:37–11:50
Discussion