The concept of tipping points and critical transitions helps inform our understanding of the catastrophic effects that global change may have on ecosystems, Earth system components, and the whole Earth system. The search for early warning indicators is ongoing, and spatial self-organization has been interpreted as one such signal. Here, we review how spatial self-organization can aid complex systems to evade tipping points and can therefore be a signal of resilience instead. Evading tipping points through various pathways of spatial pattern formation may be relevant for many ecosystems and Earth system components that hitherto have been identified as tipping prone, including for the entire Earth system.

M. Rietkerk, R. Bastiaansen, S. Banerjee, J. van de Koppel, M. Baudena and A. Doelman. 2021. Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation. Science 374 (169): abj0359.

How to cite: Rietkerk, M.: Pathways of resilience in complex systems., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1482, 2022.

Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization of the full (sub)system. Here, we explore tipping in conceptual, but spatially extended and spatially heterogenous models. These are extensions of conceptual models taken from all sorts of climate system components on multiple spatial scales. By analysis of the bifurcation structure of such systems, special stable equilibrium states are revealed: coexistence states with part of the spatial domain in one state, and part in another, with a spatial interface between these regions. These coexistence states critically depend on the size and the spatial heterogeneity of the (sub)system. In particular, in these systems a tipping point might lead to a partial tipping of the full (sub)system, in which only part of the spatial domain undergoes reorganization, limiting the impact of these events on the system's functioning.

How to cite: Bastiaansen, R., Dijkstra, H., and von der Heydt, A.: Partial tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2198, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2198, 2022.

How to cite: Sinet, S., von der Heydt, A. S., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Cascading tipping in a coupled cryosphere-ocean model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3830, 2022.

Climate tipping elements potentially lead to accelerated and irreversible climate change once their critical temperature threshold is passed. Some of their critical thresholds (tipping points) are at risk to be transgressed already within the temperature guardrails of 1.5-2.0°C above pre-industrial levels. However, it has been suggested at the same time that global mean temperature levels are likely to temporarily overshoot these boundaries.

Therefore, we investigate the tipping risk for a set of four interacting climate tipping elements using a conceptual model. To this end, we study the impact of different peak and long-term saturation temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest.

We find that overshoot peak temperatures between 2.5-4.0°C increase the risk by 10-55% even if long-term global mean temperature levels are stabilized between 1.5-2.0°C. Furthermore, the interactions between the tipping elements increase tipping risks significantly already at modest to intermediate levels of interaction. Therefore our conceptual study suggests that safe overshoots are only possible for low peak temperatures of the overshoot as well as final saturation temperatures at or below today’s global warming levels.

How to cite: Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Rockström, J., Loriani, S., McKay, D. A., Ritchie, P., Sakschewski, B., and Donges, J. F.: Tipping risks due to temperature overshoots within the Paris range, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4425, 2022.

Soils are essential to life on Earth but are rapidly degrading worldwide due to unsustainable human activities. We argue that soil degradation constitutes a key Earth system process that should be added as 10th Earth system process to the planetary boundaries framework.

Soil degradation shares all key traits with the nine Earth system processes already present in the planetary boundaries framework. It is caused by human activity, has the potential to cause unacceptable environmental change, shows tipping point behavior when forced beyond a critical level, is relevant on both local and global scales, and is strongly interrelated with the other Earth system processes. 

Healthy soils have a level of resilience against disturbances but once forced beyond a critical level, they are at risk of entering into a downward spiral of degradation fuelled by strong positive feedback loops. Well-documented examples include the local feedback between loss of soil structure and soil biota and the large-scale feedback loop between soil erosion and climate change. The final degraded state of the soil is unable to sustain human life on earth. The fall of past civilizations has been related to their inability to protect the soil. At present, ~33% of the global soils are moderately to severely degraded as a direct result of human activities such as unsustainable agricultural practices, urban expansion, and industrialization. Estimates show that by 2050, 90% of our soils will be degraded, the majority of our ecosystems will be compromised and the entire human population will be affected.

Soils are essential to life on Earth through the provision of soil functions and ecosystem services such as biomass production (including ~95% of the food we eat), climate regulation, water storage and purification, habitat provision, and nutrient cycling. They play a key role in achieving many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including SDG 15: life on land, SDG2: zero hunger, and SDG6: clean water and sanitation. Soil degradation leads to critical disruptions to biosphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, climate change, and land-system change, all processes that have already crossed their planetary boundaries. Hence, in order to improve the planetary boundaries framework and clearly signal the need to protect the soil, we call for soil degradation to be considered the 10th Earth system process in the planetary boundaries framework. 

How to cite: Kraamwinkel, C., Beaulieu, A., Dias, T., and Howison, R.: Planetary limits to soil degradation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4970, 2022.

How to cite: Loriani, S., Sakschewski, B., Abrams, J. F., Drüke, M., Lenton, T., Wunderling, N., Zimm, C., and Winkelmann, R.: Revealing hidden tipping in spatially-resolved Earth system analysis, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5370, 2022.

Basin stability (BS) is a measure of nonlinear stability in multistable dynamical systems. BS has previously been estimated using Monte-Carlo simulations, which requires the explicit knowledge of a dynamical model. We discuss the requirements for estimating BS from time series data in the presence of strong perturbations, and illustrate our approach for two simple models of climate tipping elements: the Amazon rain forest and the thermohaline ocean circulation. We discuss the applicability of our method to observational data as constrained by the relevant time scales of total observation time, typical return time of perturbations and internal convergence time scale of the system of interest and other factors.

How to cite: van Kan, A., Jegminat, J., and Donges, J.: Estimating nonlinear stability from time series data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6786, 2022.

Global warming may cause abrupt and non-linear climate tipping points, with large impacts to established socio-economic systems [1]. The socio-economic system itself also exhibits many non-linear change processes, and therefore may experience manifold unintentional climate-change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) that could already follow from relatively small changes in climatic conditions. Examples are the gentrification of vulnerable groups or abrupt unplanned retreat from areas of increasing climate risk, abrupt transitions in financial markets, large-scale systematic malfunction of critical infrastructure networks during weather extremes, sudden reconfigurations of insurance markets and house price collapses. Such SETPs are defined as ‘a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state’ [2]. It is important for spatial-economic planners and capital investors to know if and under what conditions SETPs may happen, and what can be done to anticipate and manage their causes and effects.

With three model-based case studies we demonstrate a stepwise approach to identify SETPs and to support adaptation and mitigation policy. The first is a house price collapse and radical transformation of long-term flood risk policy in a coastal city like Rotterdam, following rapid sea level rise due to Antarctic ice-sheet instability. Using a model that simulates flood risk, house prices and adaption integrally, we identify abrupt house price collapses in hundred-thousands possible futures spanning the uncertainty in sea level rise, storm surge and house market scenarios. We explicitly explore the long-term impacts of four dynamic adaptive strategies to anticipate flood risk and their successfulness in avoiding a SETP [3]. The second case is the financial collapse of the winter sports industry in the European Alps following a gradually retreating snowline [4]. The third is a large-scale systematic malfunction of national road networks of European countries due to increasing river flood hazards. The focus of our contribution is on showing how decision making can be supported despite the large uncertainties around SETPs. Finally, we discuss how the SETP-concept aligns with socio-ecological regime shifts [5] and deliberate positive social tipping points to achieve large mitigation and adaptation challenges [6,7].

Types of tipping points along the cause-effect chain from increasing GHG, to biophysical changes, to socioeconomic impacts and transformative adaptation and mitigation response. Source [2], CC-BY3.0 license.

Refs (doi): [1] 10.1073/pnas.2103081118; [2] 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6395; [3] 10.2139/ssrn.3935775; [4] 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.005; [5] 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa75; [6] 10.1073/pnas.1900577117 [7] v10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242

How to cite: van Ginkel, K., Haasnoot, M., Koks, E., and Botzen, W.: Identification and management of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7064, 2022.

With ongoing climate change, multiple stressors including ocean warming, deoxygenation, ocean acidification and limited nutrient availability are expected to lead to considerable regime shifts within marine ecosystems [1]. However, distinguishing such abrupt shifts from long-term trends in physical and biogeochemical ocean variables may not only be obscured by the natural variability of the system, but also the complexity of the ecosystem itself. Moreover, species-dependent physiological tolerances are likely going to limit the detectability of crossing of thresholds or tipping points of the whole ecosystem. The metabolic index describes temperature-dependent hypoxic tolerances with respect to the oxygen supply [2]. Critical values of the metabolic index indicate the geographical limits of marine species, therefore it is a useful metric to describe the extent of a potential habitat. Here, we assess the spatio-temporal detectability of abrupt changes in such a potential habitat for selected marine species using an environmental time series changepoint detection routine developed by [3]. We compare the number and timing of these abrupt changes in different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) run with the fully coupled Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 (NorESM2), i.e., analysing the SSP1-26, SSP-5-34-OS, and SSP5-85 scenarios. Preliminary results reveal global, regional and local abrupt changes of lost metabolically viable potential habitat in relation to environmental stressors under different evolving climates.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820989 (project COMFORT). The work reflects only the authors’ view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information the work contains.

[1] Heinze et al., 2020, The quiet crossing of tipping points, PNAS, 118(9)

[2] Deutsch et al., 2020, Metabolic trait diversity shapes marine biogeography, Nature, 585, 557-562

[3] Beaulieu and Killick, 2018, Distinguishing trends and shifts from memory in climate data, Journal of Climate, 31(23), 9519-9543

How to cite: Fröb, F., Bourgeois, T., Goris, N., Schwinger, J., and Heinze, C.: Detecting ecosystem-relevant crossings of thresholds, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11441, 2022.

Concerns are rising that the earth system may reach some critical tipping points in the coming decades. Though, growing evidence also supports the potential of positive social tipping points that could propel transformative changes towards global sustainability. The recently approved ERC Starting Grant “StoRes” (Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Flood Resilience) proposed a systematic analysis on unique cases of flood resilience, which is expected to demonstrate such a positive perspective over various spatial and temporal scales.

The ERC project focuses on the historical Tea Horse Road area (THR), a mountainous region of the Southeast Tibetan Plateau with well-documented history going back over 600 years. The study first sets up a theoretical framework on the multi-spatial-temporal features of flood resilience at the THR region, which covers the spatial differences (household, community, city and region) over the past 600 years regarding the governance, technology, society, and culture perspectives of flood resilience. A set of quantitative proxy data, historical archives, literature re-analysis, statistical data, observation data and field survey data are integrated into both the empirical study in the case areas and the agent-based modelling across the cases. Preliminary results indicated that, various strong and smart social regulations (governance, institutions, plans, management, motivations, orders, donations, dedication, etc.) enabled a wise development of many water conservancy projects that consequently enhanced the resilience of local communities to hydrological hazards.

The study aims to further 1) establish a theoretical understanding of the spatial-temporal scales of flood resilience; 2) investigate the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of flood resilience at the THR cases; 3) model the spatial-temporal dynamics of flood resilience using agent-based models; 4) transfer and generalize the research findings of the THR cases to the Mekong River basin and beyond. By doing so, the project will present pioneering work to shape the emerging research field of flood resilience, offering new and multi-dimensional knowledge on the dynamic nature of flood-society relations, and providing crucial missing links to understand how flood resilience develops within complex human-environment contexts.

How to cite: Yang, L. E.: Spatial-temporal dynamics of positive social resilience to flood hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12359, 2022.

Green water - i.e., land precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture - is fundamental for the functioning of the biosphere and the Earth System, but is increasingly perturbed by continental-to-planetary scale human pressures on land, water and climate systems. The planetary boundaries (PB) framework demarcates a global safe operating space for humanity, but does hitherto not explicitly account for green water. Here, we propose a green-water boundary within the existing PB framework, of which a control variable could be defined as "the percentage of ice-free land area on which root-zone soil moisture deviates from Holocene variability for any month of the year". We provide provisional estimates of baseline departures based on CMIP6 data, and review the literature on soil-moisture induced deterioration in Earth System functioning. The evidences taken together suggest that the green water PB is already transgressed, implying that human modifications of green water need to come to a halt and be reversed. Future research needs to advance our understanding of root-zone water dynamics, including associated large-scale and potentially non-linear interactions with ecohydrology, hydroclimate, biogeochemistry and societies.

How to cite: Wang-Erlandsson, L., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R., Fetzer, I., te Wierik, S., Porkka, M., Staal, A., Jaramillo, F., Dahlmann, H., Singh, C., Greve, P., Gerten, D., Keys, P., Gleeson, T., Cornell, S., Steffen, W., Bai, X., and Rockström, J.: Towards a green water planetary boundary, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12865, 2022.

How to cite: Porkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Mohan, C., Gleeson, T., Gerten, D., and Kummu, M.: Global blue and green water cycles exit from pre-industrial variation – freshwater change planetary boundary exceeded?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13474, 2022.

Since 2017, the 10 new insights in climate science (10NICS, https://10insightsclimate.science/) annually summarize a set of the most critical aspects of Earth’s complex climate system – including physical, biogeochemical and socioeconomic/sociocultural dimensions.

Here we set the context of the 10NICS series as a joint project between Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), and briefly visit each of the ten insights from the 2021 edition (Martin et al., 2021):  (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO₂ factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demandside solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.

The 10NICS topics are not intended to form a comprehensive scientific assessment. Intentionally limited to 10, each insight is succinct and does not try to cover entire fields.

Martin, M. A., Alcaraz Sendra, O., Bastos, A., Bauer, N., Bertram, C., Blenckner, T., … Woodcock, J. (2021). Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan. Global Sustainability, 4(e25), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.25

How to cite: Martin, M. A.: Ten new insights in climate science 2021 – a horizon scan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13516, 2022.

We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth System resilience.  Our notion of World-Earth System resilience emphasizes the need to move beyond the basin of attraction notion of resilience as we are not in a basin we can stay in. We are on a trajectory to a new basin and we have to avoid falling into undesirable basins.  We thus focus on `pathway resilience', i.e. the relative number of paths that allow us to move from the transitional operating space we occupy now as we leave the Holocene basin  to a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene. We develop a mathematical model to formalize this conceptualization and demonstrate how interactions between earth system resilience  (biophysical processes) and world system resilience (social processes) impact pathway resilience.  Our findings show that building earth system resilience is probably our only chance to reach a safe and just operating space.  We also illustrate the importance of world system dynamics by showing how the notion of fairness coupled with regional inequality affects pathway resilience. 

How to cite: Anderies, J. M., Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Heitzig, J., and Rockström, J.: Conceptualizing World-Earth System resilience: Exploring transformation pathways towards a safe and just operating space for humanity, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13540, 2022.