Several single model large ensemble simulations from Global Climate Models (GCM), Earth System Models (ESM), or Regional Climate Models (RCM), have been generated over the recent years to investigate internal variability and forced changes of the climate system—and to aid the interpretation of the observational record by providing a range of historical climate trajectories that could have been. The increased availability of large ensembles also enables new and inter-disciplinary applications beyond large-scale climate dynamics.
This session invites studies using large GCM, ESM, or RCM ensembles looking at the following topics: 1) Reinterpretation of the observed record in light of internal variability; 2) forced changes in internal variability; 3) development of new approaches to attribute observed events or trends; 4) impacts of natural climate variability; 5) assessment of extreme and compound event occurrence; 6) combining single model large ensembles with CMIP archives for robust decision making; 7) large ensembles as testbeds for method development.
We welcome research across all components of the Earth system, including for example hydrology and biogeochemistry, but also research on the role of internal variability in impact studies focused for example on agriculture, air pollution or energy generation and consumption. We particularly invite studies that apply novel methods or cross-disciplinary approaches to leverage the potential of large ensembles.
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