One of the big challenges in Earth system science consists in providing reliable climate predictions on sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal and longer timescales. The resulting data have the potential to be translated into climate information leading to a better assessment of multi-scale global and regional climate-related risks.
The latest developments and progress in climate forecasting on subseasonal-to-decadal and longer timescales will be discussed and evaluated. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for a time horizon of up to ten years from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems, as well as the aspects required for their application: forecast quality assessment, multi-model combination, bias adjustment, downscaling, etc.
Following the new WCPR strategic plan for 2019-2029, prediction enhancements are solicited from contributions embracing climate forecasting from an Earth system science perspective. This includes the study of coupled processes, impacts of coupling and feedbacks, and analysis/verification of the coupled atmosphere-ocean, atmosphere-land, atmosphere-hydrology, atmosphere-chemistry & aerosols, atmosphere-ice, ocean-hydrology, ocean-ice, ocean-chemistry and climate-biosphere (including human component). Contributions are also sought on initialization methods that optimally use observations from different Earth system components, on assessing and mitigating the impacts of model errors on skill, and on ensemble methods.
We also encourage contributions on the use of climate predictions for climate impact assessment, demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation and the development of early warning systems.
A special focus will be put on the use of operational climate predictions (C3S, NMME, S2S), results from the CMIP5-CMIP6 decadal prediction experiments, and climate-prediction research and application projects (e.g. EUCP, APPLICATE, PREFACE, MIKLIP, MEDSCOPE, SECLI-FIRM, S2S4E, CONFESS).
An increasingly important aspect for climate forecast's applications is the use of most appropriate downscaling methods, based on dynamical or statistical approaches or their combination, that are needed to generate time series and fields with an appropriate spatial or temporal resolution. This is extensively considered in the session, which therefore brings together scientists from all geoscientific disciplines working on the prediction and application problems.
Activation of the text chat sets a cookie in your browser that is automatically deleted at the end of the conference.
The message "" (#) has been sent by nickname (#)
Mute the user:
Unmute the user:
Ban the user for 5 hours:
Unban the user:
An attendee might be able to create a new nickname and re-enter this chat. In case you have any questions or need further assistance please contact us at: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Handshake – who is here?
Nickname already in use
Nickname to be defined
How to access CL3.1.9
CL3.1.9 runs as a Zoom Webinar. The live session page on EGU21 allows you to:
- Enter the Zoom Webinar in a new browser tab through the button Access live video chat;
- Watch the livestream from the Zoom Webinar, if you prefer not to enter Zoom;
- Chat with colleagues being also on this live session page;
- Use the handshake to connect to colleagues being present in this session.
How to access CL3.1.9
Session CL3.1.9 runs as a vPICO session. Everybody, conveners/chair/speakers as well as attendees, join the live session page on EGU21. While attendees stay on this live session page and see the live presentations via stream, you as convener/chair/speaker are required to enter the BigBlueButton (BBB) live video chat to give your presentation.
Please keep the live session page open on this browser tab and join the BBB video chat in parallel on another browser tab through the button below. Your personal breakout text chat following the live presentations are linked from the live session page tab, not from the additional BBB video chat tab.Enter BBB video chat