Remaining carbon budgets specify the maximum amount of CO2 that may be emitted to stabilize warming at a particular level (such as the 1.5 °C target), and are thus of high interest to the public and policymakers. Yet, there are many sources of uncertainty which make it challenging to estimate the remaining carbon budget in real world conditions, especially for ambitious mitigation targets.
This session aims to further our understanding of the climate response under different emission scenarios, with particular interest in emission pathways towards net-zero targets, and to advance our knowledge of associated carbon budgets consistent with meeting various levels of warming. We invite contributions that use a variety of tools, including fully coupled Earth System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, or simple climate model emulators.
We welcome studies exploring different aspects of climate change in response to future emission scenarios, in addition to studies exploring carbon budgets and the TCRE framework, including: the governing mechanisms behind linearity of TCRE and its limitations, effects of different forcings and feedbacks (e.g. permafrost carbon feedback) and non-CO2 forcings (e.g. aerosols, and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases), estimates of the remaining carbon budget to reach a given temperature target (for example, the 1.5 °C warming level from the Paris Agreement), the role of pathway dependence and emission rate, the climate-carbon responses to different emission scenarios (e.g. SSP scenarios, idealized scenarios, or scenarios designed to reach net-zero emission level), and the behaviour of TCRE in response to artificial carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (i.e. CDR or negative emissions). Contributions from the fields of climate policy and economics focused on applications of carbon budgets and benefits of early mitigation are also encouraged.
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