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  Information - NH11.01 Modelling, computer-assisted simulations and mapping of natural phenomena for hazard assessment

Event Information
Slope movements, lavas and pyroclastic flows, floods, soil erosion, earthquakes, tsunamis, pollution, fires, and spread of infection, are just examples of the set of dangerous phenomena which pose serious risk to the human environment in many parts of the world. The session deals with new methods of hazard analysis and modelling of complex natural phenomena by means of computer-assisted techniques. We invite the submission of contributions on innovative approaches of simulation, as well as on novel methods of model calibration/validation, and case studies. Complexity is a fundamental element at the frontier of modern scientific research, especially when considering hazardous natural phenomena. In the past, the distinction between describing phenomena in terms of solvable differential equations marked the difference between “strong” (highly predictive) and “week” (purely descriptive) science. However, differential equations for complex phenomena mostly lack analytical solutions. Fortunately, approximated numerical methods, commonly based on a discretisation of space-time, are now possible thanks to computer power. These methods have greatly extended the class of problems which can be solved in terms of differential equation systems. However, many problems still are computationally located beyond these methods. While new computational techniques for the solution of complex differential systems are discovered and refined, innovative numerical methods emerge from alternative computational paradigms – such as cellular automata, neuronal nets, genetic algorithms, etc. Both differential and alternative approaches rely on the dual concept “modelling and simulation”. Nowadays, assessing hazard conditions related to complex natural phenomena increasingly takes advantage of computer-assisted simulations. As a consequence, the above mentioned innovative methods (yet not completely standardised) are becoming more prevalent. State-of-the-art research in the field of computer-assisted simulation of complex natural phenomena, and of related hazard mapping techniques, together with a comparative discussion on potential and limits of different modelling approaches (e.g. approaches based on differential equations, cellular automata, statistical analysis, etc.), will be the topics of talks given by invited speakers.

Preliminary List of Solicited Speakers
S. Tinti, "The Indian Ocean tsunami of 26th of December 2004: the role of numerical tsunami simulation models".

H. Miyamoto, "Topographic confinement of a lava flow: a possible key to estimating rheological properties and emplacement conditions" (co-authors: D.A. Crown & K.R. Papp).

S. Tarantola, "Global Sensitivity Analysis of the tephra fallout carried out by a numerical dispersion model of the volcanic particles: an application to Etna" (co-authors: S. Scollo, C. Bonadonna, M. Coltelli, J. Cariboni & A. Saltelli).

P. Watts, "Probabilistic mapping of landslide and tsunami hazards off Palos Verdes, California".

D. Tappin, "Mapping and Modelling of seabed morphology - the PNG Slump – 3-D Evidence to Demonstrate a Tsunami Source?" (co-authors: G. McMurtry, J. Smith, P. Watts).

Co-Sponsorship
Co-sponsored by CNR - IRPI

General Statement
The information contained hereafter has been compiled and uploaded by the Session Organizers via the "Organizer Session Form". The Session Organizers have therefore the sole responsibility that this information is true and accurate at the date of publication, and the conference organizer cannot accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made, and he makes no warranty, expressed or implied, with regard to the material published.



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